NFL Game Picks: Week 7

Welcome back to the full edition of my weekly NFL game picks, complete with analysis and explanations! Last week, even though the picks were short, they worked out pretty well, because my Week 6 record ended up being 9-6. This week, the marquee match-up comes on Sunday night, as Peyton Manning goes home to the house and franchise he built, facing his former team and his successor, Andrew Luck. Much has been made of Colts' owner Jim Irsay's comments in the media this week, where he expressed his dissatisfaction with only one ring from the Peyton Manning. While I'm sure winning only one Super Bowl must be tough to deal with, implying that these comments were a slight at Manning is taking things perhaps a step to far. Irsay is aware that for a while, Peyton was this team. This team was often below average in many positions outside of wide receiver and quarterback, so the fact that they were one of the most dominant teams in the NFL for over a decade is a true testament to Manning's great skill. Irsay merely seemed to imply that had the team been more well-rounded and had found talent elsewhere, his fingers would be more decorated. Once Peyton left his team, the Colts went 2-14. Irsay's comments seem accurate.

Seahawks at Cardinals
21-17 Seahawks
The first match-up of the week pits two NFC West foes against one another, as the Seahawks travel to the desert to take on the Cardinals. This is not a slam dunk win for Seattle, as this is a game they dropped last year in Russel Wilson's NFL debut. Arizona's tough defense will make life hard for Seattle's mediocre offense, which has had trouble putting points up on the road. Even if the offense struggles though, it's unlikely that Arizona is going to be able to put up that many points either, as Carson Palmer hasn't been playing well this year and now he's facing Seattle's mighty secondary. Richard Sherman vs. Larry Fitzgerald should be the must see pairing this game, as it's always a treat when the smack-talking Sherman takes on one of the best receivers in the NFL.

Buccaneers at Falcons
23-18 Buccaneers
Call me crazy, but the Buccaneers just might be in line for their first win of the season. The Falcons are at home, but that's actually where they lost to the Buccaneers last year. Mike Glennon showed improvement last week, and so far the Falcon's defense has managed to make every quarterback that faces them look outstanding. On offense, the Falcons are still extremely banged up, with most of their best skill position players currently in the trainer's room. Revis island should be able to shut down whatever receiver Matt Ryan wants to throw to, meaning the rest of the Tampa Bay defense is going to sell out to stop Tony Gonzalez. On paper, Tampa Bay actually seems set up for a victory, but of course it's very possible Greg Schiano is going to find a way to screw this up.

Bills at Dolphins
20-14 Dolphins
Off of the bye, the Dolphins should come out ready to rebound as they try to stay close with the Patriots for a shot at the AFC East. Cameron Wake should be healthy coming off the bye, and his pass rushing skills should be a huge boost for this defense. Hopefully Ryan Tannehill's protection issues will be somewhat under control, or else Mario Williams will explode off the edge. Thad Lewis will make his second start for the Bills, and he's injured too, and an injured practice squad guy starting does not sound like a recipe for success, no matter how impressive his first performance was. This is a game the Dolphins have to win at home to stay relevant, and I'm guessing they get it done.

Bears at Redskins
17-14 Bears
The score in this game stays low not because of great defense, but because I have a feeling the run game is going to be a major factor. With the  injuries to the Chicago defensive line, the Redskin game plan will include a heavy dose of Alfred Morris, with some RGIII sprinkled in to the side. The best way for Chicago to counter will include a lot of Matt Forte to get the defense some rest, and then some play-action to go over the top with Brandon Marshall. Few possessions will mean a low score, but the Redskins have been starting slow this year, and some wasted possessions in the first half will start signaling doom for the Redskins.

Bengals at Lions
30-24 Lions
The Lions escaped at Buffalo this past week for their first win on the road, but they likely they won't fare nearly as well this weekend when they travel to Detroit. The Lion's track meet offense will be geared up to run on Ford Field, and even the great Bengal defense will have trouble slowing them down. The Bengals don't have anyone who can slow Calvin Johnson down, even if he still has an injured knee. The Bengals have trouble putting up points on the road too, and the odds that Andy Dalton can keep up on the road against Matthew Stafford aren't great.

Cowboys at Eagles
35-31 Eagles
It's phase one of the battle for the NFC East crown, and the high flying Eagles may be headed from worst to first when the game is over. Nick Foles is going to make his second start for Chip Kelly, as Michael Vick's hamstring is still acting up. Foles has been sensational since Vick went down, tossing six touchdown passes to no interceptions, and he seems out to prove that an athletic quarterback isn't necessary for Kelly's system. The Cowboys have Tony Romo to exploit the Eagles' secondary, but coming into this week they are also missing running back DeMarco Murray and plenty of key players on their defensive line. Romo isn't nearly as effective with an unbalanced offense, and LeSean McCoy could be geared up for a big day. This is a big game that could get extremely close, and those are the games the Cowboys always seem to lose.

Rams at Panthers
24-18 Panthers
The Rams have worked their way back up to .500, but it's likely that their winning streak comes to a halt this Sunday in Carolina. Cam Newton is sizzling after stomping the Vikings last Sunday, and the Panthers ground game could find success on the Rams' bad run defense. Sam Bradford, on the other hand, seems unlikely to out duel Newton, especially because none of his receivers or weapons have stepped up this year. At home, Carolina seems set up for another win, especially since Ron Rivera seems determined to keep his job.

Patriots at Jets
20-13 Patriots
We seem set up for a good Geno Smith performance, but even with Jerod Mayo out for the year the rookie probably won't be able to get the upper hand on Bill Bilichick. Geno won't repeat his rough performance in week two, but Bilichick won't have to work to hard to keep Geno Smith's non-existent weapons in check. Rex Ryan is trying to get his defenders pumped up to stop Tom Brady, but Geno's mistakes will set up Brady up in some great situations, and that will be enough for the Patriots to open their season 3-0 in their division.

Chargers at Jaguars
28-10 Chargers
Keep trying Gus Bradley, keep the faith. The Jaguars actually may have more of a chance than I'm giving them, as the Chargers' secondary is a big weak point. Justin Blackmon has been playing like a man possessed since returning from suspension, and he could take over the game for the Jaguars and maybe keep them in the game longer than they should be. Maybe. The more likely scenario is that Philip Rivers stays hot and Chad Henne still isn't a good enough quarterback to pose a serious threat throwing to anyone outside of Blackmon. Keep trying Jacksonville, maybe they can at least score enough points to not be at the bottom of points scored in NFL history.

49ers at Titans
21-7 49ers
The Titans are taking on their second straight NFC West opponent in a row, and like last week it's likely that Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Titan offense will have trouble moving against a tough defensive opponent. Chris Johnson has been unable to make any big strides in the running game, and Fitzpatrick doesn't have a big enough arm to spark the passing game. The 49ers still aren't a perfect team right now and still have their own troubles with the passing game, but Frank Gore has been trucking ahead to make up for it, and Frank the Tank will probably carry the 49ers to another victory, as they keep their NFC West title hopes faintly alive.
Browns at Packers
18-13 Packers

Texans at Chiefs
17-7 Chiefs
Case Keenum will make his first career start this weekend, but Gary Kubiak isn't exactly planning on easing him in. Keenum will be starting against the top ranked defense in the NFL on the road in one of the toughest stadiums to play in. Keenum had many concerns two years ago that led to him being undrafted, but he looked solid in the preseason, better than second string quarterback TJ Yates did, so he may actually may be an upgrade on the Texans' current quarterback situation. The Chiefs have to be ecstatic that their defense is receiving a pretty easy assignment, so if Alex Smith doesn't screw things up again the Chiefs could be sitting pretty with their seventh win of the season.

Ravens at Steelers
21-20 Ravens
The Steelers final stand of 2013 could come as early as week seven of the season, as if Pittsburgh fall to the Ravens on their home turf, any hope of saving their season will likely go out the window. This is one of the last great rivalries remaining in pro football, so no matter the talent disparity between the two teams this is going to be a close match-up. Neither offense is blowing other teams out, but the key here is that the Pittsbrugh defense still looks very much past its prime. The Ravens still have plenty of talent on their defensive line to attack the Steelers' weak offensive line, and dominate the line of scrimmage. The Ravens won't be able to win the reverse of that battle handily, but Joe Flacco and the passing game may be able to produce enough big passing plays to vault them over their rivals. It doesn't look like anyone on the Steeler roster should be able to handle Torrey Smith by themselves, and that's who Flacco needs to look to all day to put some points on the board.

Broncos at Colts
38-31 Broncos
Peyton Manning's homecoming is a happy one, for him at least. The Colts' defense just doesn't even come close to matching up with Denver, as the Broncos aren't going to try to out-muscle the Colts, they're going to try to out-gun them. That's going to force offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton to abandon his conservative power run game, and what we've seen from Hamilton so far seems to show that it's unlikely that he's going to be able to match Peyton point for point. The return of Von Miller should also spark the Bronco pass rush, which should not be good news for a Colts' offensive line that still struggles to protect Andrew Luck.

Vikings at Giants
26-20 Vikings
What a rousing Monday night match-up! Both teams have few things going right for them, but at least the Vikings are the less awful of the two. New quarterback Josh Freeman may be able to provide a spark for this offense, just like Matt Cassel was able to give them a lift in week four. Hopefully Freeman's spark will last a little bit longer.