Thursday, October 31, 2013

NFL Game Picks: Week 9

Well, I finally had my breakout week last week when my game predictions actually started coming true (thank you for saving me Matthew Stafford) as I went 12-2 last week on my way to a total record of 71-49 for the year so far. Can I keep it up this week? Probably not. But here's hoping! Week nine of the NFL season doesn't feature any real marquee match-ups, perhaps the most notable being Saints and Jets, simply because you have the story of two brothers facing each other on the football field. I mean, it's no HarBowl, but it's something! Last week it was the rich getting richer with many of the top teams in the NFL finding a way to win games again (funny how that works). Still, we are nowhere close to being done with this season yet, and several dark horse contenders still have time to make some noise before they hang up their cleats (I'm looking at you, Tennesee and San Diego). Those teams are still exciting to watch, oh, and those guys that are still undefeated in the land of barbecue are pretty fascinating too.

Byes this week: Giants, Lions, Broncos, Jaguars, 49ers, Cardinals

Bengals at Dolphins
27-20 Bengals
In the early parts of the year, both of these teams seemed like young squabs that were about to make the leap into AFC contention. Fast forward a few weeks, and these teams have gone in completely opposite directions, with the Bengals making the leap and the Dolphins falling backwards, due to an inability to protect their quarterback and said quarterback's refusal to get the ball out quickly. The Dolphins offensive line will actually be weaker this week as right tackle Jonathan Martin had a mental breakdown at the team facility. Expect the Begals front four to take advantage. In all seriousness, thoughts and prayers go to Martin and his family, in the hope that he is able to get help and counseling for his illness (because that's what it is).

Falcons at Panthers
31-17 Panthers
Like the game above, the Panthers have been on a tear and the Falcons can't get off the ground. The Falcons' offensive line is having a rough year, and the Panthers' scary front seven is probably way more than this group can handle. Matt Ryan will rebound slightly from his rough outing against the Cardinals last week, but asking Matty Ice to best Superman with the piece he currently has around him is a pretty tall order.

Chiefs at Bills
20-18 Chiefs
Another week, another win for the Kansas City Chiefs against a backup quarterback. Thad Lewis is officially starting this game for the Bills even though he suffered a rib injury against the New Orleans Saints last week. The Cheifs' pass rush is not going to be kind to that injury. The Chiefs' games have pretty much fallen into a routine at this point: not a lot of scoring, the game is close late even though the Chiefs have been in front most of the day, and the Kansas City defense closes the door with a big play to let their offense run out the clock. Expect more of the same this week!

Vikings at Cowboys
30-14 Cowboys
The Cowboys are going to be a little angry after their last second loss to Detroit last week. Luckily for them, next on their schedule is a team that's not too strong in the secondary, so Tony Romo and Dez Bryant should be able to work out their frustration to their heart's content. And did I mention that Christian Ponder will be starting again for the second week in a row, for no explainable reason? You're welcome, Dallas defense.

Titans at Rams
21-10 Titans
Coming off of their bye, the Titans should have a much healthier Jake Locker under center, while the Rams will still be putting Kellen Clemens out there. With competent quarterback play the Titans should cruise to a win in this game, as Clemens puts a good old Halloween scare into just about nobody on defense, while Locker has shown plenty of improvement in year three. The Titans are still in the thick of a playoff push, and getting their starter back should help them stay alive in the AFC South.

Saints at Jets
33-16 Saints
The Jets have yet to lose (or win) back to back games this season, but that trend may finally be snapped against the Saints in a great brother vs brother match-up on defense. Rob Ryan has been fielding one of the most surprising units in the league, and while Rex Ryan is fielding a much improved unit, his is coming off their worst performance possibly ever in his tenure last week against the Bengals. Unlike Rex, Rob is paired with an offensive mastermind in Sean Payton, and their partnership is what puts their team over the top and into the heart of Super Bowl conversation.

Chargers at Redskins
27-21 Chargers
The Chargers come out of an off week well rested and facing a reeling team in the Redskins, so expect Mike McCoy to have his squad ready to make a statement before they have to start squaring off against the Denver Broncos and the Kansas City Cheifs. Philip Rivers should be able to carve up the Redskins' weak secondary, and the balance the Chargers have been able to establish on offense should keep the ball in Charger hands most of the game. RGIII is coming off perhaps the worst performance of his career against Denver, and probably still has the bruises to show for it, so this week is probably not the week he breaks out in 2012 form. Operation Patience continues.

Eagles at Raiders
17-10 Raiders
Chip Kelly's offensive wizardry has fallen prey to poor quarterback play, and thus his much heralded offense has scored a total of three points in the last two games (the team put up seven last week against the Giants, but that was on a special teams play). The Raiders actually have sneaky talent on defense, and they should be able to flex their muscles again after securing a win against Pittsburgh last week despite little offensive help. Terrelle Pryor doesn't put up big points, but with this defense he really doesn't have to. Dennis Allen may be the man for the job in Oakland after all.

Buccaneers at Seahawks
27-7 Seahawks
This match-up seems a little unfair, as the 7-1 Seahawks get the winless Buccaneers at home, where they're practically unbeatable. The Seahawks have definitely had their struggles, but there's no way the Legion of Boom secondary is scared of what Mike Glennon might do to them. No way. The big (maybe only) thing to watch for this game is whether Percy Harvin makes his debut in a Seattle uniform. With Sidney Rice now out for the year, the Seahawks need Harvin to contribute quickly on offense.

Ravens at Browns
24-23 Browns
These are not the Super Bowl champion Ravens we are seeing on the field every week this year, and the defending champs would take a huge shot to the gut  if they lose to the Browns this week. Unfortunately for them, I see that happening. The Ravens ground game has been one of the worst in the NFL this year even though it was thought that the team had a potent one-two punch in Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce. The Browns front actually excels in stopping the run though, so don't expect anything to change this week. Jason Campbell gave a spark to the Browns' offense last Sunday against the Chiefs, and it's very possible he carries that momentum back home and uses weapons Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron to keep these Browns rolling as one of the surprise teams of the year.

Steelers at Patriots
26-18 Patriots
Ben Roethlisberger has already called this game a "must-win" for the Steelers, as at five losses any more numbers in the loss column could start spelling doom for postseason hopes. Getting a win in Foxborough, however, seems like a much taller task than these Steelers are capable of. Their offensive line is getting no push for the running game, and that's the one area on defense where the Patriots are vulnerable. On offense, the Pats are still figuring things out, but the Steeler defense's age has been showing all year and they're not going to force Tom Brady into any mistakes, no matter how hard they try.

Colts at Texans
28-17 Colts
Both of these teams are fresh off byes in time for prime-time football, but only one of these squads truly deserves a national audience. The Texans season has been cruel to them, with multiple injuries and shoddy quarterback play dooming a pretty talented team. For this game, the Texans will be starting Case Keenum again, but the young starter may not have talent in the backfield behind him because Arian Foster and Ben Tate are both banged up. This game may not be that competitive, but it is an important eye test game for both teams. How do the Colts look without Reggie Wayne? And what do the Texans have in Case Keenum?

Bears at Packers
28-14 Packers
The Packers have owned this rivalry as of late, and with backup Josh McCown under center for the Bears that seems unlikely to change this time around, especially with the Packers at home in Lambeau. Aaron Rodgers has been dominating opponents recently with pinpoint throws all over the field, and rookie runner Eddie Lacy has been helping truck this offense along at a deliberate pace to give the injured Packers' defense plenty of rest. The Bears' defense has been struggling, giving up 45 points in its last outing, and their only silver lining all year has been their ability to keep forcing turnovers. Unfortunately, now they're facing a Packers' offense that has no problem keeping the ball on the ground, as well as the quarterback with the lowest interception percentage in NFL history. The odds don't look good for Da Bears to take back this rivalry.

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