The Minnesota Vikings are now a quarter way through their season, starting this season out 1-3 with losses to Detroit, Chicago and Cleveland, while winning a game in London against Pittsburgh. Compare to last year, their record is actually reversed, as the team was 3-1 through four games in 2012. With the Vikings on a bye this week, instead of previewing their game for this week, it's time to reflect where the Vikings stand right now as a team and where they go from here. It's time to start differentiating between some studs and duds, the players fans should love and the players that need to start seeing the bench a lot more (or maybe already are).
Vikings' Offense
Points/Game: 28.8 (5th in the NFL)
Yards/Game: 350.5 (15th)
Passing Yards/Game: 223.8 (23rd)
Rushing Yards/Game: 126.8 (10th)
Turnovers: 10 (4th)
Just looking at the stats for the Vikings' offense through four weeks, even though this offense didn't pass the eye test until week four, on paper it has looked good. The yardage total still makes it a mid-tier unit, but the important thing is this offense is putting up points. The passing game for the Vikings still isn't strong, but it's also not at the bottom of the NFL, an improvement from last year when the team finished 31st in that category.. The main thing holding this offense back, clearly, is the turnovers. Seven of those 10 turnovers have come from quarterback Christian Ponder, and it may have resulted in his last snaps as a Viking, as Matt Cassel started in his stead week four and did not turn the ball over.
Vikings' Defense
Points/Game: 30.8 (29th)
Yards/Game: 430.8 (29th)
Passing Yards/Game: 326 (32nd)
Rushing Yards/Game: 104.8 (13th)
Takeaways: 12 (T-3rd with Kansas City)
The Vikings' defense is one of the bottom dwellers in the NFL, which is not at all what was expected coming into this season. While this unit wasn't supposed to be dominant, it was thought to at least reside in the middle of the NFL. Right now, the NFL's middle defenses (Denver, Oakland and Miami, tied at 15th) are giving up a total of about 23 points per game. If the Vikings held their opponents to 23 points per game, they'd be 4-0 on the season so far. The biggest weakness on this team is obvious, they are getting massacred through the air right now, ranking last in the NFL. Their ranking in rushing yards is extremely misleading because teams have passed on the Vikings almost twice as much as they have tried running the ball (187 passing attempts to 99 rushing). The takeaways are a reassuring statistic, but the Vikings' corners have yet to record an interception this year, so teams still have no reason to hesitate attacking them.
Studs:
Harrison Smith
While the Vikings' secondary is the big weakness of the team, at least one player back there seems to know what he's doing. Harrison has already built off of his great rookie campaign to become one of the best young safeties in the NFL; he's a piece back there this team can build around. Smith already has 30 tackles on the year, as he just has a nose for the football and can find it anywhere on the field. He is also the only member of the Vikings' secondary to record an interception this year, already picking off two passes. Smith is starting to show that he can be a ball hawk as a safety, and that's something this team desperately needs.
Adrian Peterson
Many would look at Adrian's numbers so far this season, 92 attempts for 421 yards (4.6 yards/carry) with five touchdowns, and be almost disappointed from what we've seen from the MVP this season. He isn't dominating teams like he did the last half of the season last year, and he doesn't seem to be chasing any major records so far. Except he is. Adrian is already on pace for the best year following a 2,000 yard season, as no one has even come back for 1,500 yards in their NFL career (AP's on pace for 1684). It's also important to keep in mind that Adrian's well ahead of the pace he set last year, because after week four on 2012 Adrian had only rushed 79 times for 332 yards (4.2 yards/carry) with just two touchdowns. He also extended his lead on a record he currently owns, recording his 12th touchdown run of 60 yards or more, most in NFL history ahead of Jim Brown, who has nine. Adrian is still playing like the best running back in football right now, and he's already proven this year he's the most explosive back in history.
Matt Cassel
Matt Cassel deserves some more starts with this team. He makes quicker decisions than Christian Ponder and it seems based on player comments that he has much better command of the huddle. Cassel isn't perfect, as he almost turned the ball over like Ponder, he just got lucky in that his teammates were there to bail him out. Part of the reason the turnovers almost happened though is that Cassel played much more aggressive than Ponder every has, as he was committed to moving the ball farther downfield, which was able to open things up for Adrian. Cassel was able to put up 34 points in his one start, the most the Vikings have put on the board all year. With the way this defense is playing, they need someone who can direct them to those kind of points.
Subs:
Josh Robinson
Robinson is the scapegoat in the Vikings' secondary this year, and with good reason. He's playing like the worst corner in the NFL, and it may not be even close. According to Andrew Krammer of 1500 ESPN, Robinson has been targeted 38 times this year, the most in the NFL. Teams are looking for him so they can throw right at him. Of those 38 targets, 35 have been completed (92% completion rate) for almost 400 yards, well over 10 yards per attempt. Robinson inexplicably is still a starting corner on this team, but he needs to get the boot sooner rather than later. The Vikings don't have great depth to replace him, but Marcus Sherels can't be worse than this. It's not possible.
Christian Ponder
Year three was supposed to be the time Ponder established himself as the leader of this franchise, but now it's quite possible he might never see the field for this team again. Ponder simply has not gotten any better than he was last year, AP just hasn't been dominant enough to cover up for his mistakes. Ponder's passer rating is one of the worst in the NFL, and his yards per attempt still falls under seven yards. Ponder has also given the ball back to the other team seven times, putting an already struggling defense in bad spots. Ponder was also not an effective mover of the chains, as in the Browns game the Vikings had half their drives go either three and out or end with a turnover. In contrast, in the Steelers game, Matt Cassel had the team go three and out only three times in their 11 drives, and put points on the board on six of those drives (he also put the team in field goal range on another drive, but Walsh missed). The offense simply functions better with Cassel at the helm, and it's safe to start applying the first round bust label to Ponder.
Kyle Rudolph?
Where has Kyle Rudolph been all year? The Pro Bowl MVP has been almost invisible out on the field this year, only having 12 receptions through four games with only one touchdown. Three of those receptions have come in garbage time or desperation drives by the Vikings, meaning Rudolph is having a very minimal impact when a game's outcome is still in question. It's not entirely Rudolph's fault, as he has been rarely targeted so far this year, as the Vikings seem to be de-emphasizing their tight ends while focusing on their wide receivers. The Vikings have a potent weapon in Rudolph, and his lack of use this season has been extremely confusing, almost more so than the team's lack of use of rookie Cordarrelle Patterson.
Up/Down:
Both Lines
Both the offensive and defensive lines have had very inconsistent seasons so far this year, even though both were thought to be strengths coming into the year. The Vikings' front four struggled to generate pressure through the first three games, and the Vikings were only able to tackle the quarterback four times in the first three games. The line came alive in London however, and the Vikings left the country with five extra sacks, four of them by defensive lineman. They were playing against a bad Steeler offensive line, however, and the defensive line needs to build off that performance and show that it's not a fluke, because the weak secondary is going to get exposed often without a pass rush. The offensive line also had a rough first three games, failing to open holes for Adrian outside of one big run and allowing 10 sacks. In London they also stepped up their play though, as Adrian had great holes and Matt Cassel was only sacked once. Part of the reason they were able to have success was the new quarterback, as Cassel made quick decisions in the pocket so the lineman didn't have to hold their blocks as long. His throws down the field also helped clear the box around the line of scrimmage a few times, making the line's job in the run game much easier. The line must like playing with Cassel, and I'm guessing they're going to push for him to start.
Moving forward, the Vikings' next two games are at home against the 1-2 Panthers then on the road squaring off with the 0-4 New York Giants. Those are two very winnable games, and if the Vikings are able to make some changes around the bye week to help their defense (like benching Robinson), there's a good chance they could walk out of both contests victorious. That would bring the Vikings back up to .500 just in time for their week eight match-up: a primetime home game on NBC against the hated Green Bay Packers. Could a win there at home put the Vikings in control on the NFC North just four weeks after the world seemed to be crashing around this team? It's a long season in the NFL, anything's possible!
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