Just when you think you know how a season is going, one simple play can change the entire dynamic on a conference. I am referring to, of course, the collarbone fracture suffered by Packers' quarterback Aaron Rodgers that looks like it will sideline him for at least four games. Luckily for the Packers, their first three games sans Rodgers will be against the up and down Eagles, the 2-6 Giants and the currently 1-7 Minnesota Vikings. If you were ever going to lose a star quarterback, that's a pretty good stretch of games to lose him for. The big question for the Packers will be, can backup Seneca Wallace take advantage of that schedule to keep this team on track? The race for the NFC North division and the last wild card spot in the NFC looks like it's going to be a tough race, and the Packers can't afford to lose any ground. Will the Lions rise up to take the division, which would be their first division title since the NFC North was created? (they last won their division in 1993, back when they were in the NFC Central) This week they will be blocked by the Chicago Bears, who must feel like their season has new life with the injury to Rodgers and the big divisional win they were able to get against the Packers on the road. What once seemed like a division containing only one truly elite team will now likelly result in a three-way race to the finish, it was has suddenly become the division race to see in the NFL. Here are my picks for this exciting week in the NFL, as I try to keep improving my record this year! (I went 8-5 last week for a total record of 79-54 on the year)
Byes this week: Patriots, Browns, Chiefs, Jets
Redskins at Vikings
28-24 Redskins
I already wrote about this game for my Vikings' weekly preview (go and check it out!) so I won't go into too much detail again, but the main points include that the Vikings likely won't be able to shut down the Redskins' run game, and it's possible that this locker room has already given up on coach Leslie Fraizer.
Seahawks at Falcons
21-14 Seahawks
The Seahawks offense has been anything but impressive the last two weeks, surviving a match-up with the winless Buccaneers by the skin of their teeth. Luckily for this team, the Atlanta Falcons' defense is not a scary unit to face, so Russel Wilson and company should have no problem surviving for another week as they wait for some of their offensive line to get healthy. Seattle's big corners should be able to take away some of Matt Ryan's targets too, so Matty Ice is going to likely stay cold for another week.
Bills at Steelers
Bills 24-23
Is it possible to call any game with the Steelers losing an upset at this point? Still, with the Steelers at home and with many questions about this Bills team this likely isn't going to be a popular pick. The Bills will get back rookie quarterback EJ Manuel for this contest after he's missed time from a knee injury, and that excitement may provide enough of a spark for this team to beat out the older and slower Steelers. CJ Spiller looks a lot healthier, and if he can get moving then no one on the Steeler roster will be able to catch him. Mario Williams has also got to be salivating looking at the match-up with the Steelers' offensive line. Expect a few sacks from him on the day, for sure one late in the game that ices the game in the Bills' favor.
Lions at Bears
33-17 Lions
The Lions take control of the NFC North with a big win in the Windy City, and as you can see I don't even have this game close. The Bears' defense has been pretty rough these past few weeks, and Reggie Bush and Calvin Johnson should both be able to have big days because the Bears don't have a player on defense that can hope to slow down either one of them. The Bears may have Charles Tillman back to line up with Johnson, but asking the hobbled and older Tillman to keep up with Megatron for a full 60 minutes might be too much of a stretch at this point. The Bears may get Jay Cutler back, but Cutler may not be ready to retake command in the huddle and he certainly did not impress in his last game against Detroit.
Bengals at Ravens
Bengals 21-18
For the Ravens, this game equates to a must-win because any division loss at this point could make an AFC North title a pipe dream. With All-Pro defensive tackle Geno Atkins out for the Bengals the Ravens might have a chance to take advantage....if their run game wasn't so pedestrian. While the Ravens' offensive line isn't top quality, there's no question some holes for their running backs have been available, Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce just haven't been able to take advantage. People praised general manager Ozzie Newsome's work this offseason in rebuilding this Super Bowl champion team to make sure it was competitive in the future, at least on defense, but it seems Ozzie overlooked that the other side of the ball needed just as much work.
Eagles at Packers
27-17 Eagles
So, Nick Foles, who just tied an NFL record with seven touchdown passes in a game, or Seneca Wallace? Call me crazy, but I think Nick Foles is going to scare a lot of Packers' fans this weekend by putting the Packers on the outside of the playoff picture. The Packers are going to have to rely on rookie Eddie Lacy to carry this offense, and the Eagles will likely be ready by putting a safety in the box and daring the Pack to throw. While the Eagles secondary has been no great shakes this season, against the run this team is pretty solid and may at least force the Packers into a few third and longs. Can Seneca be trusted to convert those? Packers fans may not like the answer.
Jaguars at Titans
20-7 Titans
CJ2K looks like he's back and the Jaguars have the worst ranked run defense in the NFL. The most exciting football game Jaguars' fans should watch this weekend will be Thursday night's big college showdown between Oregon and Stanford, because Marcus Mariota may be in fact be under center for this team next year. The debate between Teddy Bridgewater and Mariota, should he choose to forfeit his eligibility and declare for the draft, should be a lot more fun than the real football currently being played in Jacksonville.
Rams at Colts
30-13 Colts
The Rams may have a shot in this game if their defensive line is able to generate solid pressure on Andrew Luck, but as evidenced last week Luck usually is able to overcome his team's flaws and give them a win. Zac Stacy should be leaned on heavily for the Rams in order to decrease the number of possessions for Luck and company, but Stacy has been phenomenal these past few weeks and the Rams offense has still failed to put up many points. That's what happens when Kellen Clemens is your starting quarterback.
Raiders at Giants
18-17 Giants
The Giants have always had at least a four game winning streak each full season with Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning, and with the Raiders and the Packers as the next teams on their schedule that streak might actually not end even in a pretty dismal year. Terrell Pryor has a knee injury coming into this game that could limit his effectiveness with his legs, and thus limit the effectiveness of this Raider offense. Also, after getting torched by the Eagle offense last week the Raider defense doesn't look prepared to stop anybody, even an offense that has struggled as much as the Giants.
Panthers at 49ers
31-27 49ers
The Carolina Panthers have been on a tear the past four games of their season, but those wins have often come against weaker competition. Well, this week they take on the San Francisco 49ers at Candlestick Park so their mettle is certainly going to be tested. The San Francisco 49ers have been playing great football as of late, and coming off of the bye Jim Harbaugh will most likely have this team ready to make a play for the NFC West title. Step one is getting his defense to slow down a lights-out Cam Newton, but if any defense can do it, the 49ers can.
Broncos at Chargers
Broncos 35-33
Two of the top quarterbacks in the NFL are going head to head in a big divisional bout, in what should be one of the more exciting games of the week. The Broncos are going to have to play through the loss of their head coach John Fox, but with Peyton Manning behind center, that offense will run itself anyway. Neither defense is that talented or is likely to make a statement, so it's up to these offenses to not give these defenses any freebies in terms of turnovers. With Peyton Manning coming off a bye week, expect him to top Philip Rivers, one of the few quarterbacks he doesn't have a winning record against.
Texans at Cardinals
Cardinals 21-20
The Texans have to be excited about what they're seeing from quarterback Case Keenum, the only problem is that his play has not resulted in any wins yet. Getting a win in this game might prove to be elusive as well, as the Cardinals have played very tough at home, beating two competitive teams there in the Lions and Panthers. The Cardinal defense is chock full of quality players, and another week without Arian Foster could lead to Keenum coming up just short yet again, especially because Gary Kubiak will not be on the sideline to call plays.
Cowboys at Saints
Saints 34-27
The Saints have to be frustrated after their second loss of the season, while the Dallas offense and defense struggled at home last week against the Minnesota Vikings. The Saints should get some of their weapons healthy this week which should provide some extra firepower to take down the Dallas offense. While the Cowboys are getting pass rusher DeMarcus Ware back, he most likely will not be one hundred percent right away, which should lead to the Saints taking care of business at home.
Dolphins at Buccaneers
Dolphins 24-20
The battle of Florida should lean Miami's way, despite all of the off the field drama surrounding the team right now. Tampa Bay fought bravely in Seattle for a while last week but in the end Russel Wilson was able to pull off a miraculous comeback. Is this team likely to rise up again under Greg Schiano? It does not seem likely, even though Mike Glennon has shown plenty of promise in his limited action as a starter, taking care of the football and moving the offense.
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