After completing predictions for the regular season for the AFC, here is what the potential playoff seedings would look like:
1. Denver (12-4) - Bye
2. Houston (12-4) - Bye
3. Cincinnati (11-5)
4. New England (11-5)
5. Baltimore (10-6)
6. Indianapolis (9-7)
The two tiebreakers between Denver and Houston, and Cincinnati and New England, were decided by which team I felt would win their regular season match-up (Thus, I am predicting Denver beats Houston in week 16 and Cincinnati tops the Patriots week 5).
First, before predicting how the postseason will play out from here, a few observations:
1. The exact same playoff field returns from the 2012 season, albeit slightly re-ordered in terms of seeding. While this is extremely unlikely to happen in reality, right now before the season starts there seem to be a wide gap in the AFC between the playoff teams from 2012 and everyone else. The team closest to being left off this list in Indianapolis, due to having major question marks at the offensive line and defense, but unfortunately for everyone else, they have Andrew Luck, who has the potential to make those negatives meaningless. The ultimate decision to leave teams like Miami and Kansas City off this list really came down to faith in the talents of Luck, who played well enough in his debut season to warrant that faith.
2. These six teams are the only teams in the AFC that I predicted would have a winning record in 2013. That should speak to how weak this conference has become in comparison to the NFC. (Seven of the top ten picks in the 2013 NFL Draft were slated to go to AFC teams)
3. It cannot be overstated how preliminary these predictions are. We haven't even played a snap of real NFL football yet this season, and a lot is going to change in terms of injuries, suspensions and just overall style of play that is going to change the direction of the trend a team is going in. Even a minor difference in seeding could potentially create an entire new set of predictions because the NFL is all about match-ups and how one team stacks man-for-man against another team, with even a minor weakness becoming a huge advantage. Momentum is also everything in the NFL and impossible to predict at this stage, as the last two Super Bowl winners were not the most talented teams in the league but simply got hot at the right time.
Wild Card Game 1: #3 Cincinnati vs #6 Indianapolis
Predicted winner: Cincinnati
While it may seem hypocritical for me to pick Cincinnati after just expounding on the faith I have in young Andrew Luck, I am also a realist and know there's only so many things he's going to be able to do for this team on his own. When it comes to matching up the Colts and the Bengals, the dominant defensive line in Cincinnatti should be too much for the weak Indy o-line to handle, leaving Luck no time to be able to get his offense on the move. On the other side of things, the Bengals should now have too many weapons for the Colts to hope to contain and while I don't envision Andy Dalton lighting up the scoreboard on his home turf, this offense should gain steady yards and keep momentum squarely on the Bengals' sideline.
Predicted score: 27-14 Bengals
Wild Card Game 2: #4 New England vs #5 Baltimore
Predicted winner: Baltimore
A rare one-and-done for Tom Brady in the playoffs, as he simply draws the match-up in round one that he has struggled against recently: the Baltimore Ravens. Brady lost twice to the Ravens last year and especially struggled to put points on the board against the Ravens in the AFC Championship game on his home field. Fast forward a year and the talent around Brady has gotten weaker while the Raven's defense only looks stronger. Joe Flacco's offense doesn't seem capable of lighting up the scoreboard in this game, but they should play good complimentary football and take any turnovers or short fields the defense is able to give them into favorable offensive situations and most likely points. This is a game that figures to be pretty close throughout but the Ravens psychological edge over Brady, knowing they can get to him, should push them over the top.
Predicted score: 20-17 Ravens
Divisional Game 1: #1 Denver vs #5 Baltimore
Predicted winner: Denver
Hmm....this seems familiar. The Ravens come to Mile High Stadium for the second year in a row for a shot at the AFC title game, only this time I have a different outcome occurring (though I did last year too, and that worked out well for them). Peyton Manning most likely will have another average day (or at least average for him) against this strong Baltimore defense, meaning the pressure is mainly on the Bronco defense to not give up as many big plays in the passing game and put more pressure on Flacco this time around (the Broncos, despite leading the league in sacks last year with St. Louis, did not record a sack until overtime last year). All the breaks the Ravens got, such as a tipped past pick-six and Jacoby Jone's miraculous catch, don't figure to repeat themselves as long as the Broncos don't get overconfident and play disciplined football. If the Broncos' defense can hold up their end of the bargain this postseason, Denver has a great chance to taste sweet revenge.
Predicted score: 24-20 Denver
Divisional Game 2: #2 Houston vs #3 Cincinatti
Predicted winner: Houston
Another year, another playoff game between the Texans and Bengals. This would be the third year in a row these two squads would square off in January, only this time it comes one round later. This figures to be a battle fought largely in the trenches, as Houston's offensive line must push back the Bengals in order to spring the focal point of their offense, running back Arian Foster. The Bengals o-line needs to keep monster defensive end JJ Watt at bay and keep the Texans from penetrating and disrupting their offense, a battle they decidedly lost last year. The Bengals and Texans almost seem like mirror images of each other in a way, both built on solid defenses and lead by quarterbacks many have questioned. Both quarterbacks have also been given new weapons this offseason in the hopes that they will use them to erase some of the many questions surrounding them. In the end, this feels like a repeat for the third year in a row as while the Bengals' offense may have some more bite this season at the skill positions, they won't be able to use those weapons if their offensive line gets dominated like it did last year. Houston on the other hand should be able to do enough offensively with their running game to get play-action working for their passing game, leading to enough points to win the game but still not be good enough of a performance to silence the Matt Schaub critics.
Predicted score: 20-13 Houston
AFC Championship Game: #1 Denver vs #2 Houston
Predicted winner: Denver
Congratulations to Peyton Manning on reaching the third Super Bowl of his career, and congrats to the Texans for making it to the first AFC Championship game in franchise history! Is it likely that the top two seeds both make it all the way to the championship game? No. Which is why these predictions should be taken with entire shakers of salt. Now, though Houston's defense figures to be solid, they have been absolutely carved apart by the elite passers in this league like Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady. Peyton's up-tempo attack in Denver should give them similar problems, especially with the multiple receiving threats Houston would have to cover. Denver's run defense looks to be exceptional this year, even if the rest of their defense isn't shaping up to be great, and if they are able to slow down Arian Foster this Texan offense will stand no chance of matching Peyton point for point. It's also possible that Manning takes the lead early, forcing the Texans to rely on Matt Schaub's arm rather than Foster's legs in order to get their offense going. Make no mistake, that is a game the Texans cannot get sucked into because if they do they may have no chance of winning. Unfortunately, they may have no choice if Peyton is able to pick apart their defense like Rodgers and Brady were able to. The Broncos' lack of clarity in their running game may prevent them from closing this game out in the 4th quarter, but late game heroics just don't seem in the cards for Matt Schaub.
Predicted score: 34-24 Denver
Well there you have it, the Denver Broncos are my pick to reach the Super Bowl this year and compete for the 2nd Lombardi of Peyton Manning's career. NFC predictions will be coming up shortly and then a final post will be made declaring my extremely early preseason winner of Super Bowl XLVIII. Stay tuned sports people!
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