Here it is, finally: the predictions for the Minnesota Vikings' division. As previously stated in my post on breakout candidates for the Vikings this year, the Vikings can be predicted to go in one of two directions this year: Christian Ponder and the passing game step it up and the Vikings have a chance at the NFC North crown, or Ponder fails to show consistency and the Vikings fight to finish .500. That might seem like an oversimplification as there are many more factors that could affect how this football team finishes, but in today's NFL the quarterback is far and away the most important person on the field, and several flawed teams have been carried to success due to their quarterback's play. Christian Ponder needs to prove to Vikings fans this year he can be one of those guys. Meanwhile, slightly east of Minnesota, Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has just about nothing to prove after leading the Packers to consecutive division championships, even though he suffered behind a porous offensive line last year and his offense had no running game to speak of. The Packers line looks to be leaky yet again this season, but can rookie running back Eddie Lacy provide enough offensive balance to give Rodgers time to throw? In Chicago Bears fans have a similar dilemna to the ones Vikings fans are facing, as it's unclear whether quarterback Jay Cutler has what it takes to be a reliable NFL quarterback. New head coach Marc Trestman was brought in to "fix" Cutler, and the Bears dedicated their offseason to giving Cutler the pieces around him he needs to succeed, so the pressure is most certainly on. The Detroit Lions experienced a swift fall from grace this season, going 4-12 after reaching the playoffs the year before. Their main question this year: which year is more indicitive of the direction this team is headed?
1. Green Bay Packers : 11-5 (2012 Season : 11-5)
With the best quarterback in football right now, there's almost no doubt that the Packers will be a postseason contender again come January. Rodgers may get sacked a fair amount behind this line again this year, but as long as he can avoid the injury bug this offense should keep humming. Eddie Lacy will at least provide a prescence in the backfield, something the Packers have lacked for a while, and he should be able to at least close out a few games for the Pack this year. The team also returns one of the top receiving corps in the league, and while depth is more of a concern after the loss of Greg Jennings, Rodgers ability to spread the ball around should make that a relatively moot point. Their defense is also not as bad as you might think, despite being embarrassed in the playoffs last year by the 49ers, if the starters can stay healthy this year (something they have failed to do the last few seasons) this unit has loads of potential, especially since they have a knack for making big plays and generating turnovers. The Packers will be challenged by the more physical teams in the league (the 49ers and Giants have been very successful against them the past few seasons) but should have no problem playing winter football at Lambeau come next year.
2. Minnesota Vikings : 8-8 (2012 Season : 10-6)
This breaks my heart to have to predict it, but my brain won't have it any other way. I said this season could go one of two ways, and ultimately I see my beloved Vikings taking a step back because Christian Ponder isn't up to the task of being an NFL starter. I would love for him to prove me wrong this year, I really would. But right now, the spotty decision making, the lack of deep ball accuracy, and extreme happy feet in the pocket prevent me from saying that the light will just turn on and he'll turn into a quality NFL starter. Plenty of fans and analysts have mentioned that if Ponder could only be a league average quarterback the Vikings would have a very strong chance at another playoff berth. The thing is, that line of thinking already is indicitive of Ponder's perceived lack of upside, and I'm simply not willing to settle for a league average quarterback to lead my team. It can be somewhat exhausting to read NFL predictions for the Vikings and only read about Christian Ponder, since there are so many other interesting facets of this team and many positive things to like about Leslie Fraizer's squad. In the end, I'm not going to mention them either here, because viewing this season as anything but a referendum on Christian Ponder at this point is a mistake. If he can't be anything better than average, expect big changes next offseason.
3. Chicago Bears : 8-8 (2012 Season: 10-6)
The Bears are trying to do their best to salvage the career of Jay Cutler, but at this point he may simply be who he is. He's a quarterback who is extremely gifted athletically with a cannon of an arm but is prone to bad decision making and getting injured. Marc Trestman's system has seen plenty of success in his time as an NFL offensive coordinator, but we saw this offense go through some growing pains during the preseason, and Jay Cutler has still shown a knack for throwing bad interceptions. Another key factor for the Bears that has largely been overlooked this offseason due to the Trestman hiring is how well their defense will play without head coach Lovie Smith, who had always been one of the best defensive minds in football. Over the first half of the season last year this Bears' defense was receiving comparisons to their heralded 1985 team, forcing turnovers left and right and carrying this team to a 7-1 start. However, as the season wore on, the comparisons became less and less apropos, as the aging defense started to look a little gassed and weren't as effective down the stretch. With most of their key starters returning another year older on defense (the one exception being 2nd round pick Jonathan Bostic, their new starting inside linebacker) and without Lovie Smith's guidance this unit could take a large step back, and Jay Cutler has never been able to carry a team on his own.
4. Detroit Lions : 7-9 (2012 Season : 4-12)
In the end, neither the 10-6 playoff team nor the 4-12 last in the division Lions are the true version of this team. In the end, the answer lies somewhere in the middle. The Lions simply had terrible luck last year, losing eight games decided by a touchdown or less, including a game on Thanksgiving where they lost due to one of the weirdest replay rules ever invented. Logic dictates that simply won't happen again to the Lions, and they have several new additions to be proud of like free agent running back Reggie Bush and athletic rookie defensive end Ezekiel Ansah. However, quarterback Matthew Stafford also owns an awful 1-24 record during the regular season when going against teams with a winning record. The Lions beat the teams they are supposed to beat, but they have yet to be able to challenge any of the big dogs in the NFL. This team has plenty of talent and potential, but they have yet to put it all together under head coach Jim Schwartz and returning to being average likely won't be enough to save his job.
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