This will be the first in a series of posts where I attempt to break down and predict the success (or lack thereof) for teams during the 2013 NFL season, division by division. Afterward playoff predictions will follow! Now, on to the AFC West!
I think if you polled most NFL experts, hands-down this would be ranked as the worst division in football. Three of its teams picked in the top 11 in last year's draft, including once owning two out of the first three picks (though Oakland later traded their selection). While some things figure to change this season, barring an unexpected injury to Peyton Manning this should be the Bronco's division all the way as he attempts to add another ring to his finger while Oakland figures to be one of the top contenders for top pick Jadeveon Clowney next spring.
1. Denver Broncos : 12-4 (2012 Record : 13-3)
With one of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history reportedly feeling even better than he did last year, when he returned from injury and finished runner-up in MVP balloting, the Denver Broncos figure to coast through the regular season and wait until January to play meaningful football. While the departure of Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller's six game suspension leave giant holes in this team's pass rush ability, Peyton's up-tempo attack figures to keep the Broncos outscoring most of their regular season opponents anyway, so while they may lose a few games during the first six weeks while they wait for Miller's return, their season is in no way threatened as they feast on what looks to be a weak regular season schedule and wait for the playoffs.
2. Kansas City Chiefs: 8-8 (2012 Record: 2-14)
A nice improvement for the Chiefs, as the team who held the #1 overall pick this past year improves to .500 ball with the additions of Coach Andy Reid and quarterback Alex Smith. The Chiefs actually have a very talented roster at their disposal, and could make some noise in a weak AFC but their offense figures to be about league average at best and their defense appears to look solid but not dominant. Smith will make sure the Chiefs' offense cuts down on the ridiculous number of turnovers they gave up last year, but he also won't set the world on fire or keep opposing defensive coordinators up at night enough for this team to become a true contender. This team overall is in line for a big bounce-back year, but a few more playmakers are needed on both sides of the ball for this team to take the next step forward.
3. San Diego Chargers: 5-11 (2012 Record: 7-9)
The Chargers take another step back, and the leash on Phillip Rivers gets a little bit tighter as the Chargers start to contemplate how much longer they can keep their (former) franchise quarterback around. New coach Mike McCoy was brought over to try to fix Rivers, but with protection issues still abound for the Charger's offensive line and injuries to many of the Charger wide receivers, there's not a whole lot you can ask this offense to do right now. Ryan Matthews has talent as a running back, but he has never been able to stay healthy and has been extremely inconsistent throughout the course of his career. This defense has plenty of talent and may be able to prop up the offense in tight spots, but if Rivers continues to turn the ball over like he has over the last two seasons (47 total over that span) there might not be much the defense can do to prevent points. An 8-8 season would be huge for this squad and should give the Charger's front office a lot of confidence that McCoy knows what he's doing.
4. Oakland Raiders: 2-14 (2012 Record: 4-12)
By far and away, my choice for the worst roster in the NFL. There is no proven starting quarterback on this roster. Even if there was, with the injury to Jared Veldheer at left tackle, the team couldn't protect him. If they could, who would he have to throw the ball to? Not to mention that the defense, which is supposed to be Coach Dennis Allen's specialty, is also severely talent deprived and was near the bottom of the NFL last season. Half of the Raider's wins last season came from beating up on Kansas City. With the Chiefs poised to rebound, the Raiders have no one to make them look even somewhat adequate.
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