The NFC South could wind up being one of the biggest toss-ups in football this year, with each team having the potential to win this division, but each could also wind up finishing .500 or worse when it's all said and done. The division winner last year, the Atlanta Falcons, appear to be a contender again this year due to having the best combination of skill position players in the NFL, but their play in the trenches this year could hold them back. The New Orleans Saints could get a boost this year with head coach Sean Payton returning from a one year suspension, but their historically bad defense last year might not even be that improved due to a multitude of injuries. The Carolina Panthers have a fearsome rebuilt front seven and the dynamic Cam Newton at quarterback, but will the back end of their defense or the talent around Newton limit them? The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were on a hot streak during the middle of the season last year, but quarterback Josh Freeman's inconsistency at quarterback cost them down the stretch and his play will define their season this year.
1. Atlanta Falcons : 11-5 (2012 Season : 13-3)
The Falcons were a team very few people took seriously last year, as while they did storm through the regular season, they did so with a very easy schedule and had never won a playoff game under quarterback Matt Ryan. Matt Ryan managed to prove many of his doubters wrong by finally winning a game in January, but with a much tougher regular season, does this team have it in them to win more? With the best wide receiver tandem in the NFL (Roddy White and Julio Jones), an ageless tight end (Tony Gonzalez) and a free agent running back excited to finally be on a winner (Steven Jackson), expect plenty of big plays from this Falcon's offense. However, their defense may have a hard time sharing the load, because over half their sack production from 2012 departed in free agency, and it will be hard for acquisition Osi Umenyiora to replace that all by himself. Their secondary also figures to have some young rookie contributors, and it is likely they will experience some severe growing pains without a significant pass rush to help them out. Will that be enough to hold them back now that their schedule is much less forgiving?
2. New Orleans Saints : 9-7 (2012 Season : 7-9)
The Saints offense should explode back onto the scene with Sean Payton returning to the fold, but even a top tier offense may not be enough to carry this defense. New defensive coordinator Rob Ryan came to the Superdome to try to at least develop a workable defense out of 2012's last place unit, but with multiple injuries striking players he expected to be big contributors and even starters, things do not look good. Both of the players slated to be the starting outside linebackers (the players Ryan relies on for his pass rush) have gone down, meaning this unit will have trouble setting the edge and getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Even though this defense will almost surely be at the bottom of the league, there is no reason this offense shouldn't be at the top with underrated talent at the skill positions (except maybe Jimmy Graham, who can't be called underrated if he's considered the best healthy tight end in the league right now), which should propel the Saints back to at least a winning record.
3. Carolina Panthers : 7-9 (2012 Season : 7-9)
"Now it's time to win." That was the statement on Cam Newton given by new Panthers General Manager Dave Gettleman. Cam Newton has all the tools you could ask for in a modern quarterback, but he is just 13-19 in his career as a starter. Can he get past his immaturity issues and prove that he's the man this year? That seems unlikely with a pair of aging running backs in his backfield, neither of whom was able to top Newton's total rushing yards last year. Steve Smith and Greg Olsen are reliable in their roles as a wide receiver and tight end, respectively, but neither is that explosive and there is little to no depth behind them. This defense is the most solid that the Panthers have seen in years, especially up the middle, but their secondary is still a question and that's a bad weakness to have with the explosive offenses of the Falcons and Saints. Overall, Gettleman needs to provide more support behind Cam before making more statements to the media.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers : 7-9 (2012 Season : 7-9)
The Buccaneers showed last year that they have plenty of talent, now they just need to show it week in and week out. They seemed poised to compete for a wild card spot during the middle of the season, as they got to a 6-4 start, but they stumbled down the stretch to finish 7-9. Their secondary (ranked last in the NFL) was a huge part of that, though with offseason additions Dashon Goldson and Darelle Revis that issue appears to be resolved. The main player under the microscope will be quarterback Josh Freeman, who has plenty of talent around him with two quality wide receivers in Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams and workhorse back Doug Martin, but has gone through extreme highs and lows during his career. Those lows included a stretch during the last three games of the 2012 season when he threw only two touchdown passes to a staggering nine interceptions. That simply cannot happen if the Buccaneers want a shot at postseason contention this year, but unfortunately, Josh Freemen just might be who he is at this point.
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