Sunday, September 29, 2013

Vikings Come Together Abroad: Get first win of the season in London

Well it's about time. That's what plenty of Vikings fans must have been saying to themselves tonight, whether they were referring to the Vikings' first win of the season or Matt Cassel starting at quarterback for the first time this year. The Vikings jumped out to an early lead while playing a "home" game in London, jumping out 10-0 and keeping a 10 point lead into halftime, where they were up 20-10. Like seemingly every Vikings game this year, however, this game was close at the end. The Vikings were up 34-27 late but their offense went conservative and gave the ball back to Steelers' quarterback Ben Roethlisberger (or "Big Ben") no timeouts but just under two minutes left on the clock. The Vikings had given up two consecutive game winning drives at the end of games and looked like they were about to surrender a tying score when Big Ben got the Steelers to the Vikings' six yard line. Defensive end Everson Griffen may have made the play of the season at that point though, standing Big Ben up and forcing a fumble that sealed the Vikings' first victory of  the season. You'll notice the grades are a lot more generous this week for the Vikings than in weeks past; that's what happens when you win.

Offense: A
No question, the Vikings' offense turned in their best performance of the season Sunday in London. The offense put up 34 points on a very old but still stingy Steeler defense, its highest point total of the season. Not only that, the offense had zero turnovers on the day, their lowest total of the season. While the great day wasn't just due to Matt Cassel's individual performance at quarterback, it's clear his presence had a major impact on this offense as a whole. Adrian Peterson had his best individual day of the season. The receiving corps played hard all day. The offensive line only gave up one sack after giving up six last week to the Browns. Even offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave had a solid day calling the plays for the Vikings, opening up the playbook far Cassel far more than he ever did with Ponder under center. 

Quarterback: A-
Matt Cassel wasn't particularly great against the Steelers, he actually didn't play as well as his numbers would indicate. The offense was clearly excited by Cassel though, and he got more out of the team this game than Ponder ever has. Cassel started off inaccurate, especially when he had to look for his second read, starting off completing only 6 of his first 15 passes. He almost turned the ball over three times, but several of his teammates stepped up to make sure the ball did not wind up in the arms of the Steelers. Cassel got better and better as the game went on though, completing his last 11 passes and having no incompletions for the entire second half. Cassel was very decisive in the pocket, getting the ball to his receivers quickly, which in turn allowed those receivers to make plays for him that they never could have made for Ponder. Cassel made throws downfield that we haven't seen from Ponder all year, and he was asked to make several throws that Musgrave simply doesn't trust Ponder to complete. Cassel finished with a passer rating of about 123, almost double of Ponder's rating on the season. Matt Cassel is the starting quarterback going forward. Anything else is a joke.

Running Back: A
Adrian Peterson likes having a quarterback. Bill Musgrave's plan was pretty obvious from the start: quick throws to the outside by Cassel, in order to soften up the inside for Peterson. Mission accomplished. The Steelers defense is getting up there in years, and AP made them look ancient. Adrian broke several tackles on route to a huge 60 yard touchdown run in the second quarter, and finished the day with 140 yards and two touchdowns. AP still played tentative around the line of scrimmage at times, but he averaged over six yards per carry on his best day in 2013 so far. One of the reasons for his great day was the return of his Pro Bowl fullback Jerome Felton from suspension. Felton was clearly missed as a lead blocker, but barring injury Peterson won't have to be separated from his beloved fullback again this season.

Wide Receivers: A
Both Jerome Simpson and Greg Jennings sent compliments Matt Cassel's way before the game Sunday, and it was pretty obvious they were happy Cassel was on the field Sunday. The receivers made some spectacular catches throughout the day, including two great touchdown catches by Greg Jennings, the receiving corps' first touchdown catches of the year. Jennings showed why the Vikings gave him a handsome contract this offseason, spinning and breaking tackles for a 70 yard touchdown, after not being that noticeable the first three games of the season. Not only did the receivers make catches though, they did a lot of little things right that ended up being key to the offense's success. Cordarrelle Patterson knocked an interception out of Ike Taylor's hands on a deep pass from Cassel, which allowed the Vikings to kick a field goal. The downfield blocking was also fantastic from the receiving corps, as Jarius Wright was able to help spring Jennings loose on his long touchdown, and the receivers were able to keep defenders off of AP often.

Offensive Line: A
By far, this was the line's most complete game of the season, as they opened up plenty of holes for AP and only let Cassel get sacked once. The line was more physical with the Steelers and thus did better in both the run and the pass game, with no one member noticeably struggling. Matt Cassel had a big hand in that, as he made much quicker decisions and throws than Ponder would normally make, meaning the line had to hold onto their blockers for shorter amounts of time. I think I know who the line is going to want to start at quarterback in two weeks against the Panthers.

Defense: B+
The Vikings' defense still isn't playing as well as many hoped it would before the season started, but the defense made plays to win this game. Most importantly, they exorcised their late game demons this week when they prevented the Steelers from marching down the field for a game tying score. They gave up 34 total points and 434 total yards during the game, mostly through the air because they were without both a starting cornerback (Chris Cook) and a starting safety (Jamarcus Sanford). The problems defending the pass also resulted in the Steelers converting over half of their first downs (8/15). The Vikings bent frequently but were tough to break, holding the Steelers to only three touchdowns on six red zone trips. They also forced two turnovers from the Steelers, including forcing a key fumble to seal the victory.

Defensive Line: A-
After a disappointing stretch of play the first three games, the defensive line came alive in London and was key to the Vikings' first win. The defensive line recorded four of the Vikings' five sacks, over doubling the unit's previous sack total. Jared Allen recorded two and a half sacks on a single drive, and rookie Shariff Floyd recorded the first sack of his career. The line was able to get pressure on quarterback Ben Roethlisberger most of the day, even though Big Ben was very hard to bring down. The Steeler running game also had a hard time finding consistency, as any runs up the middle were frequently bottled up. Defensive end Everson Griffen was also the one who stood Big Ben up for the ending fumble, and defensive tackle Kevin Williams was the one who recovered it.

Linebackers: B
The linebacking corp is still far from perfect, especially in coverage, but they were able to make things happen for this defense today. Chad Greenway owned the day defensively, recording 10 tackles, a sack, and an interception, and he was also in on the strip of Big Ben. Erin Henderson was less successful, and Big Ben was able to escape his grasp a few times. The linebackers continue to have problems in coverage, as Big Ben was picking them apart on intermediate routes all day and often Ben's receivers were able to get plenty of yards after the catch too. Part of that is on the secondary, but the linebackers need to have tighter coverage too.

Secondary: C+
It looked like it was going to be a rough game coming into London for the Vikings' secondary, as they were missing two starters and facing one of the better quarterbacks in the game. The thin secondary was thrown on all day, as the Steelers had over 50 passing attempts that netted them 383 yards. Josh Robinson was a major weak point covering the slot, giving up several big gains to the speedy Steeler receivers, as well as a 48 yard pass interference penalty that set up a Steeler touchdown. The corners on this group still have yet to record an interception on the year, meaning they have yet to give opposing teams a reason to do anything other than pass 50 times a game on them.

Special Teams: B
The Vikings' special teams was solid pretty much all day, and overall Mike Priefer has to be happy with what he saw today. His coverage units played much better than they have been playing, not allowing a big return by the Steelers all day. Cordarrelle Patterson still looks electric returning kickoffs, as he tallied 144 return yards on five attempts, and was dangerously close to breaking a return for a touchdown. Rookie Jeff Locke had a respectable average of 41 yards per punt, though according to Chris Kluwe on Twitter he had a bad hold on a Blair Walsh field goal attempt that went wide of the goalposts. Walsh 's miss would've put the Vikings ahead 13 points in the fourth quarter, which could have put the game away, so the unit has to lose points for that even though Walsh is still automatic from 50+ yards, drilling his twelfth field goal from that distance in as many tries earlier in the game.

Coaching:
The coaches get credit for pushing this team to its first win, even though their decision making almost cost them the win. Alan Williams was able to get his defensive line motivated again after a dormant first three games, and his defense only gave up 10 points in half one, the lowest opposing halftime score of the season. His defense also continues to force takeaways, getting two more from the Steelers. Offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave has often been a scapegoat for Vikings' fans due to questionable play calling and a limited playbook, but Cassel provided evidence that Musgrave was limited by his quarterback, not the other way around. Musgrave opened up the playbook for Cassel and the result was a great offensive performance by the Vikings, spreading the ball more both down the field and across it. The offense's decision to go conservative near the end of the game is still frightening however, and it came dangerously close to costing the Vikings a win. Facing third and three at their own 40 yard line with less than two minutes to go, the Vikings surprised nobody with running straight up the middle with Adrian Peterson, resulting in only two yards. Cassel was hot and hadn't missed on a pass in the second half, and if the Vikings convert on that third down it's game over. Leslie Fraizer and Bill Musgrave have to learn to play to win in the NFL, as their conservative attitude are giving opposing teams plenty of extra chances.

Saturday, September 28, 2013

Ponder, Cassel, and Freeman: A Quarterback Bermuda Triangle

The Vikings have an interesting quarterback situation on their hands, but not one that many teams would want. Christian Ponder has done nothing to inspire confidence through three starts this year, and it's clear that he's not the long term solution at the position. Ponder will not be starting this week against the Steelers due to injured ribs, opening the door for Matt Cassel to take charge of the job. Cassel has experienced a fair amount of success during his career, but he's also had plenty of failure, and he's thrown 22 interceptions in just his last 17 starts.

As has been previously stated on this blog, Cassel deserves this chance to start. The wide receivers on this team have already gone out of their way to praise Cassel's presence in the huddle, meaning they may have a lot more confidence in him than Ponder. Cassel has been able to push the downfield in his career much more frequently than Ponder, and he could open things up for Adrian Peterson. He also worked often with rookie wide receiver Cordarrelle Patterson often in the offseason, which means he could have a much greater rapport with the receiver and could help with his development. Of course, Cassel is likely not any more of a long term answer than Ponder. If he plays like he did last year in Kansas City, where fans cheered when he was taken out of a game due to injury, he won't be a short term answer either. Cassel has a chance, but it's possible that he's just no better than Ponder.

If Cassel fails just as Ponder has this year, a possible third option at quarterback has been floated out recently. Quarterback Josh Freeman of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers was benched this week after poor play the first few weeks of the season, and is now believed to be seeking a trade. Jason La Canfora of CBS sports initially broke the news of trade rumors, and has singled out the Vikings as the most likely trade target for Freeman. Reportedly, Rick Speilman, the Vikings' general manager, had high interest in Freeman coming into the 2009 draft, but the Buccaneers selected Freeman before it was the Vikings' pick. Freeman has had great stretches of quality play since entering the NFL, most notably the 2010 season, where he threw for 25 touchdowns and only six interceptions.

Since new coach Greg Schiano took over in Tampa, Freeman  has steadily declined. Last season, Freeman started out hot, throwing for 21 touchdowns and six interceptions in his first 10 games while leading the Bucs to a 6-4 record. Freeman vastly regressed over the last six games though, throwing for six more touchdowns compared to 10 interceptions, and the Buccaneers only won one more game. This offseason, Schiano did nothing to hide the little confidence he had in Freeman. The organization drafted quarterback Mike Glennon in the third round, a clear shot at Freeman. There have also been rumors floating around that Schiano tampered the captain voting in Tampa in order to make sure Freeman did not receiver a "C" on his jersey. With the organization sending multiple signals of little confidence, Freeman played abominably in the first three games of the season, completing less than 50% of his passes in each contest and failing to get a win.

Freeman has clearly imploded, so why would the Vikings take a chance on him? Upside. Freeman is still young (Colin Kaepernick is actually older than him) and has all the physical tools you would want in a franchise passer. With the right coaching, it may still be possible for him to turn his career around. If both Ponder and Cassel end up bringing in the same results, Speilman may try to roll the dice with the quarterback he liked coming into the 2009 draft, especially since the Buccaneers will most likely accept only a late round pick in exchange for Freeman.

While it would not cost the Vikings much to take a chance on Freeman, the trade has several negatives as well. The most obvious would be that Freeman has only had one season of success in his career, and that season didn't even result in a playoff berth, and it's likely that year is the exception, not the rule. Freeman also has a large cap hit remaining on the year, a little over $8 million, and the Vikings would most likely have to restructure his contract in order to be able to get him to Minnesota. That most likely would require extending his contract, meaning he would have to stick around 2013. Even if the Vikings somehow were able to bring him to the Metrodome without extending his contract, his extended tryout with them would likely produce little results. It would be extremely unrealistic of the Vikings to expect anything out of Freeman right away coming into a new system with teammates that he has never worked with before. Freeman would require the Vikings to largely ignore the quarterback position during the 2014 offseason if he came over, even though he may not end up being a long term answer here just like he wasn't in Tampa.

While it's tempting to hope Cassel or Freeman will come onto this team and right the ship, the reality is that neither of these two is likely to get this team close to a Super Bowl anytime soon. Nine out of the past 10 Super Bowl winners have won with a quarterback that they drafted. The Vikings want help at quarterback? Don't look to put a band-aid over the position with Freeman and go start looking at the guys in college.

Friday, September 27, 2013

Vikings Week 4 Preview: London Calling for Cassel

The Vikings travel to London this week for a "home" match-up against the Pittsburgh Steelers, a team that's just as desperate for a win as this team. The Steelers also come to London without a win on the season, a position two time Super Bowl champion quarterback "Big Ben" Roesthlisberger and Super Bowl champion head coach Mike Tomlin have never been in this far into a season. The Vikings are going to field a depleted roster on this international trip, as backup quarterback Matt Cassel will get the start over an injured Christian Ponder, and starting secondary members Chris Cook and Jamarcus Sanford have already been ruled out for the game. The Vikings will get Pro Bowl fullback Jerome Felton back from his three game suspension Sunday, but Adrian Peterson's other main lead blocker, tight end Rhett Ellison, is out with a knee injury. The game in London was most likely billed to the locals as a competitive match-up between two historic franchises. Instead, our allies get 0-6. As per usual, here are the big questions facing the Vikings this week as they attempt to get their first win of the season.

Offense
Will Jerome Felton's return make an impact?
Adrian Peterson's lead blocker is going to be returning to the field Sunday, and #28 has got to be hoping that he's going to help get the Vikings' ground game going. After starting the season with a 78 yard touchdown run, Peterson has been held to under three yards a carry since. The offensive line has been a mess, and Peterson was also missing his second lead blocker Rhett Ellison (who was responsible for that 78 yard score with a key block) for most of last week. The Vikings would love it if Felton could get Adrian out in space again, but Felton has not played in a game since week one of the preseason due to an appendectomy and then a three game suspension. It's fair to wonder if he'll be in game shape right away. The Vikings need their Pro Bowl fullback to make an impact now against the Steelers' tough defense, and it will be interesting to see if he's up to the task.

Can the offense limit giveaways?
Through the first three games, the Vikings' offense ranks second in the NFL in a key statistical category: turnovers. The Vikings have already given away the ball nine times this year, and that's been a major reason why they have yet to come away with a victory on the season. Luckily, they are facing a Steeler defense that is ranked dead last in taking the ball away, as they have yet to force a single turnover. If Matt Cassel proves better than Christian Ponder and keeping the football out of harm's way, this team is going to have a much greater chance of success. That may prove to be a challenge for Cassel though, as he has 22 interceptions in just his last 17 games.

What will we see out of Matt Cassel?
Tom Brady's former backup will get the start for the Vikings this week, over an injured Christian Ponder. Needless to say, plenty of Vikings fans are going to put Cassel under the microscope this week to determine if he should be the Vikings' starter going forward. If Cassel makes sure the Vikings hold onto the football and shows he can get the receivers involved more (and maybe loosens up the box for Adrian), then it's going to be tough for Leslie Fraizer to go back to Ponder as his starter. Cassel has been effective in short bursts in his career, going to the Pro Bowl in 2010, but he has also gone through stretches of very disappointing play (see the turnover statistic above), and it will be interesting to see which version of Cassel will show up for the Vikings. So far, reaction in the Vikings' locker room has been very supportive of Cassel, as both Greg Jennings and Jerome Simpson have come forward praising his presence in the huddle (per Andre Kramer at 1500 ESPN), meaning this is a change players might want to take a chance on too.

Defense
How is this secondary going to hold up?
The Vikings' secondary is going to have a big target on their back going into this week, as they've suffered several injuries and will not be at full strength Sunday.. Starting cornerback Chris Cook is out, meaning the Vikings are going to rely on rookie Xavier Rhodes, second year corner Josh Robinson, and special teamer Marcus Sherels to beat a potential Hall of Fame quarterback in Ben Roesthlisberger. Rhodes has looked like a solid investment so far, and Sherels deserves heaps of praise for how he performed when called upon last week, but Big Ben is by far the best quarterback this team has faced this year. The Steelers like to throw this year too, as they have almost no running game to speak of right now. If Brian Hoyer can throw for over 300 yards against the Vikings' back end, it's scary to think of what the Steelers could do on Sunday.

Will we see a pass rush?
One of the biggest surprises for the Vikings so far this season is their complete lack of a pass rush with their front four. After the Browns gave up 11 sacks in their first two starts, the Vikings' defensive line only recorded one sack and linebackers were asked to blitz in order to manufacture pressure. The Steelers' offensive line is by far the weak point of their offense, but this defensive line has not shown that they can take advantage of that. The secondary looks set up to have a rough day with so many injuries, and they're going to need this pass rush to step it up and make sure Big Ben does not have a lot of time to throw. Sadly, Big Ben is one of the best in the game at escaping pressure, and it's going to very tough for the Vikings to bring him down.

Can the defense show up in the first half?
The Vikings have allowed 48 points in the first half in their last two games. Not surprisingly, they entered halftime in both of those games trailing their opponents. The defense has yet to get off to a good start, and they have simply looked unprepared for what opposing teams have thrown at them each week. With a new starter at quarterback facing a tough defense, the Vikings need their own defense to step up and support the team throughout the entire game. The Vikings cannot afford to take another half off in they finally want their first win of the season.

Coaching
Is this coaching staff going to be able to keep this team together?
There were plenty of bad feelings around the locker room after the loss to the Browns last Sunday, where the Vikings were both clearly outplayed and outcoached. The coaching staff needs to come into Sunday's contest more prepared for their opponent, and they need to make sure the players come out playing hard. The Vikings were caught sleeping several times last Sunday and that's simply unacceptable if you want to win games in the NFL. The London trip and the new starter at quarterback hopefully will provide a small spark for this team coming into their fourth game, and the coaching staff needs to make sure they can turn that spark into production on the field.

Final Prediction: 24-20 Steelers
The Vikings' secondary is just too glaring a weakness to overcome against a quality quarterback like Big Ben, and their non-existent pass rush from their front four won't be able to cover that weakness up. I fully expect Matt Cassel to play effective football, and I think he's going to play well enough to get the start against Carolina too, but Cassel isn't good enough to overcome a poor defensive backfield.

Thursday, September 26, 2013

NFL Game Picks: Week 4

Week 3 provided plenty of surprises and upsets, and as a result this blogger's predictions were pretty much ruined (we're not even going to talk about it). As a result, I'm hoping for a bit of a bounce back week in week 4, and I think I've learned enough to give up on some teams and give some teams the credit they deserve. Once again, this week doesn't exactly have a marquee match-up, but there's plenty of games that could go either way! Read on to find out which teams come out on top as most of them wrap up the first quarter of their season!

Byes this week: Green Bay Packers and Carolina Panthers

49ers at Rams
17-10 49ers
The 49ers are reeling right now after two blowout losses, but the Rams had done very little to inspire confidence the last two weeks either. The 49ers' receivers had a lot of trouble getting open against man coverage these past two weeks, but Frank Gore showed signs of life last week against the Colts. The Rams just allowed 175 yards on the ground to DeMarco Murray, and Jim Harbaugh will likely get Frank the tank moving in order to try to settle down Colin Kaepernick.

Ravens at Bills
21-17 Ravens
The Bills will face a tough defense for the third week in a row, and rookie EJ Manuel is likely going to struggle just like he did last week. Ravens' inside linebacker Daryl Smith is playing great football over the middle, so EJ Manuel is going to need to find a way to take the top off this defense if he wants to get Smith out of the picture. The big story for the Ravens will hopefully be getting their running game going with the return of Ray Rice, as Rice has yet to total over 27 rushing yards in a game.

Bears at Lions
31-20 Bears
The Bears continue their hot streak to open their season with their second win inside their division. The Lions are going to get a boost with Reggie Bush coming back, but the loss of Nate Burleson is going to allow the Bears to focus on either Bush or Calvin Johnson. The Lions still have a lot of discipline issues, and the Bears' defense is the best at creating takeaways from other teams' mistakes. The Bears' new offensive line will be tested by the Lions' front four, but the Jay Cutler to Brandon Marshall connection could have a field day against the Lions' weak secondary.

Bengals at Browns
27-14 Bengals
The Browns' resurgence stops after a week as they get handed their third loss by their division foe. The Bengals' front four did a good job of pressuring Aaron Rodgers last week, and if they play up to their standard Brian Hoyer should see plenty of orange in his face. The Bengals' offense isn't that explosive yet, but they're integrating a lot of different weapons into the game, and that could give the Browns' strong defense fits if Dalton has enough time to throw.

Seahawks at Texans
28-21 Seahawks
The Seahawks continue their roll of domination, while the Texans continue to trend in the downward direction. The Seahawks' offense hasn't put up that many points yet (except against the lowly Jaguars), but their defense has completely stymied opponents, and the Texan offense looks out of whack right now. The Seahawks have shut down quarterbacks much better than Matt Schaub this year, and even though they're on the road it's likely they improve to 4-0.

Colts at Jaguars
24-10 Colts
The Jaguars just haven't been competitive in any of their games so far, and starting Blaine Gabbert again isn't going to change that. These two teams have very different men under center, and now it looks like Luck might even have better players in the backfield behind him too. This just cannot be a fun season for Jaguars fans, and hopefully for them this start will at least convince the organization that they're gaining nothing by continuing to start Gabbert.

Giants at Chiefs
24-21 Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs easily look like the most improved team in the NFL this year, as they've already won more games than they did all of last year. The Giants meanwhile, are imploding due to a weak offensive line, and Chiefs' pass rusher Chris Houston will offer them no reprieve. Eli's going to get hit plenty of times again, and the Giants are going to find themselves near the bottom of the NFL, a position the organization almost never finds itself it.

Steelers "at" Vikings (London game)
24-20 Steelers
The people in London will be given quite the show Sunday, as two 0-3 teams will duel to decide who's less awful. Just based on quarterback play, that's likely to be the Steelers. The Vikings' secondary is beat up and injured, and this time they won't be facing Brian Hoyer under center (though even he threw for over 300 yards against this secondary). The Steelers' defense has yet to force a turnover this year, but that's likely to change as the Vikings' offense currently likes to give the ball away (2nd in the league in giveaways).

Cardinals at Buccaneers
17-13 Cardinals
Rookie Mike Glennon will now be starting for Tampa Bay, but the rookie third round pick is going to have his share of struggles as he realizes that he's not in college anymore. Glennon was viewed as a developmental prospect coming into the draft, and Greg Schiano may be kicking the tires on Glennon a little too soon. The Cardinals need to keep Carson Palmer upright against a tough defense, but their defense should be able to help them achieve an ugly win.

Jets at Titans
20-14 Titans
I almost wanted to pick the Jets this week, but Geno Smith has been inconsistent in his first three starts, and I'm done underestimating this Titans team. The Titans pulled off an impressive win last week at home against the Chargers, and their fan base will be fired up for another game at home as this team could get off to a very hot start. I still have plenty of questions about Jake Locker, but if he can keep getting it done like he did on Sunday, these Titans have a shot when they play the Colts or the Texans again.

Eagles at Broncos
35-27 Broncos
Two high octane offenses will do battle this Sunday, but the elder statesman of the NFL will show the young college guy how it's done at the next level. Peyton has been playing ridiculous football so far this year, and the Eagles' secondary will have no chance against him and his arsenal of weapons. The Broncos' defense isn't exactly going to shut down Michael Vick or Lesean McCoy either, but Eagle turnovers are going to put too much pressure on their defense.

Redskins at Raiders
30-28 Redskins
RGIII will be able to quiet a lot of critics for at least one week if he's able to finally guide Washington to its first week of the season. If Terrelle Pryor is forced to sit because of a concussion he incurred during Monday Night Football, the Skins defense should finally be able to breathe easy for a game. Matt Flynn will have little chance behind a shaky offensive line that's been disguised so far by Pryor's mobility. Flynn is nowhere near the athlete Pryor is, and the Raiders don't exactly have enough threats on offense to strike fear in any defense, even one as bad as the Redskins'.

Cowboys at Chargers
31-21 Cowboys
The Cowboys look like they're going to be on top of the NFC East this year simply by process of elimination, but their offense showed a lot of improvement last week by opening up a running game for DeMarco Murray. Philip Rivers has been playing excellent so far this season, but it doesn't seem the coaching staff has fully bought into his comeback as they're still taking the ball out of his hands often, especially at the end of games. Hopefully the coaching staff will learn after this week that that's an unwise thing to do, as Tony Romo is going to get the ball back late and will ice this game away.

Patriots at Falcons
28-24 FALCONS
The Patriots might get Rob Gronkowski back this week, and they'll announce their resurgence to the rest of the NFL with a big win in the Georgia Dome Sunday night. The Falcons' offense, which was supposed to be dominant this year, is having trouble putting the pieces together due to injuries. Julio Jones has still been great, but Bill Belichick will definitely do his best to take Jones out of the game, and it's unlikely the Falcons can beat the Patriots' defense if he disappears. Tom Brady started getting into a slight rhythm last week, and if he keeps that rhythm going the Falcons' defense won't be able to stop him.
UPDATE: Rob Gronkowski and Danny Amendola both did not travel with the team to face the Falcons this week, and without them it's hard to imagine Tom Brady being able to top Matt Ryan in the Georgia Dome. I'm switching my pick to the home team.

Dolphins at Saints
27-23 Saints
The Dolphins have been an outstanding story thus far this season, but the Saints' search for redemption is going to prove to be the better tale, as beating Sean Payton inside the Superdome is going to be a tall order.
The Saints' edge rushers have been much better than expected this season, while Ryan Tannehill's blockers leave a lot to be desired. Expect Rob Ryan to get after the young quarterback early to get him off balance. Ryan Tannehill is very much improved this year, but he has yet to reach the level of Drew Brees, who will be throwing to achieve his ninth consecutive 300 yard game.

Wednesday, September 25, 2013

NFL Power Rankings: Post-Week 3

Welcome to this week's power rankings, which are full of moving parts after many expected contenders came up short Sunday. There's been plenty of surprises early in this season, perhaps the biggest one being that the AFC is currently dominating the NFC, when the NFC was thought to be the far superior conference. That's reflected in the rankings this week, as seven out of the top 12 teams are now in the AFC for the first time, meaning the battle for that last AFC wild card spot could get messy at the end of the year.

1. Seattle Seahawks: 3-0 (1)
The Seahawks depth proved better than the Jaguars starters Sunday. This is the one team that could sustain plenty of key injuries and wouldn't even break a sweat.

2. Denver Broncos: 3-0 (2)
The Broncos just keep on rolling through their season, even though they're still without All-Pro Von Miller and Champ Bailey. Peyton is playing absolutely out of his mind so far this season, and if he keeps this up the Broncos won't care if their best defenses players ever come back.

3. New Orleans Saints: 3-0 (6)
Drew Brees to Jimmy Graham has been an unstoppable combination so far this year, as Graham is beating whatever defensive coordinators throw at him. The Saints own defense has been outstanding this year so far, as new coordinator Rob Ryan has this defense buying into their own abilities.

4. Chicago Bears: 3-0 (7)
The Bears' new offense continues to impress, not because they're lighting up the scoreboard, but because they're putting points up in critical situations. This defense still excels at taking the ball away too, meaning that they are going to be able to carry this team while this offense grows in Marc Trestman's system.

5. New England Patriots: 3-0 (8)
The Patriots showed plenty of improvement Sunday, as Tom Brady and his young cast of receivers finally started to show a connection. If they can keep building on that, Brady might have this offense humming when Danny Amendola and Rob Gronkowski returns. This defense has also been scary through the first few weeks, and this dominant defense could carry this team far into the playoffs yet again.

6. Cincinnati Bengals: 2-1 (9)
The Bengals got a big statement win on Sunday, defeating the Packers even though they turned the ball over four times. The defense was able to harass Aaron Rodgers all day, and put critical points on the board late in the game with a fumble recovery for a touchdown. Rookie Giovanni Bernard looked exciting again on offense, and as the weeks go on it looks like he'll be used more and more.

7. Green Bay Packers: 1-2 (4)
The Packers have not started out the season how they wanted, but they're still poised to be NFC contenders at the end of the year. The Packers have dealt with plenty of injuries and a hard beginning of the schedule so far, and they have a week four bye to get healthy and attack the rest of their schedule. Aaron Rodgers can't keep getting hit though, and if other teams keep bringing the pain the Packers could keep slipping on this list.

8. Kansas City Chiefs: 3-0 (13)
The Chiefs shoot up the rankings after a great performance Thursday night against the Eagles that showed they should be considered a serious threat in the AFC. This defense has been playing lights-out, no amount of Chip Kelly could spark the Eagles offense last week and Michael Vick was under duress all night. Alex Smith still can't really test a team deep, but he's been able to keep this offense on track and has been able to string together drives to get his defense plenty of rest.

9. Miami Dolphins: 3-0 (12)
The Dolphins pulled out a last second win at home against the Atlanta Falcons Sunday, and the Patriots may be facing their first legitimate threat for the AFC East title for the first time in many years. Ryan Tannehill is playing as well as any quarterback in the NFL not named Peyton Manning, and he's doing it with huge questions circulating about the people blocking for him.

10. Baltimore Ravens: 2-1 (11)
The Ravens have looked a lot better these past two weeks after getting blown out opening day against the Broncos. Their defense is looking better and better every week and it's getting close to resembling some of those great Ravens defenses of the past decade. Joe Flacco and the offense also were able to put together a solid day without running back Ray Rice, which with this defense, is all they need to do.

11. Indianapolis Colts: 2-1 (15)
It's been an eventful week for the Colts, acquiring Trent Richardson from the Browns and then beating the 49ers on the road. Richardson didn't even have much of an impact on the field Sunday, though the fact that he was now there looked like it made Ahmad Bradshaw enough to run straight through defenders all day. This Colts' defense looked a lot better than expected Sunday, and it looks like this team will take a serious run at the AFC South title.

12. San Francisco 49ers: 1-2 (3)
Things are going very wrong, very fast for the San Francisco 49ers, and they have to quickly prove the doubters wrong when they face the St. Louis Rams tomorrow night. Their receivers are struggling to get open, which has left Colin Kaepernick flustered and indecisive in the pocket. The defense is also losing two of its best players for an unknown period of time in Aldon Smith and Patrick Willis, and this defense hasn't played that great even with them there. This team needs to show it can push through these issues fast or people are going to be hopping off the bandwagon quickly.

13. Dallas Cowboys: 2-1 (18)
The Cowboys cruised to an easy win Sunday in a way they're not used to: a strong running game powered by their offensive line. Their running game allowed their offense to achieve a rare balance, which led to Tony Romo having an extremely efficient day through the air, as a lot was taken off his plate. The Cowboys' defense is playing much better than they were last year, and it looks like the Cowboys are easily the most complete team in the NFC East.

14. Atlanta Falcons: 1-2 (10)
The Falcons fell to the Dolphins after a last second touchdown by Ryan Tannehill, though Matt Ryan did attempt a desperation drive with just over 30 seconds left. The team's main problem is that it can't get its star skill position players on offense functioning together, as Roddy White and Steven Jackson are battling injuries, and Tony Gonzalez no longer isn't showing his age. A match-up this week against the Patriots could really decide the mettle of this team early in the season.

15. Houston Texans: 2-1 (5)
After two narrow victories against teams they were favored to beat, the Texans were not competitive Sunday against the Ravens. Matt Schaub and this offense imploded, helping the Ravens' defense find the end zone more times than they were able to find it by themselves. Without Arian Foster and Andre Johnson playing at the top of their game Schaub struggles, and that has to be scary or all the Texans fans out there.

16. Tennessee Titans: 2-1 (22)
The Titans continue to play tough every single week, this time pulling out a win against the Chargers via a game winning drive by Jake Locker. The Titans highlighted Locker's athleticism in their game plan Sunday, and the result was one of Locker's best performances in his short career. If the Titans are able to keep playing hard like this, they're going to make a serious run at the AFC South title.

17. Detroit Lions: 2-1 (21)
The Lions continue to show off plenty of talent on the field, though they're always lacking for style points (example: Jim Schwartz spiking his headset). The loss of Nate Burleson is going to be painful right after Burleson had a great game complementing Calvin Johnson, his emergence could have been huge for Matthew Stafford. The return of Reggie Bush will at least somewhat ease the loss.

18. Carolina Panthers: 1-2 (27)
The Panthers got a huge win Sunday by pounding the Giants to a pulp and handing them one of their worst losses in franchise history. Cam Newton was Superman on the field again, showing of his big arm and big legs in the win, helping the Panthers cruise to an easy victory. Their front seven just blew out the Giants' offensive line, giving Eli Manning no time in the pocket, and this team still has time to get all their stuff together if they want to get back in the picture in the NFC South.

19. San Diego Chargers: 1-2 (16)
Philip Rivers continues to look good this year, but right now he just doesn't have the weapons around him to put up great numbers. The Chargers also took the ball out of his hands several times near the end of the game, which looking back at the game, clearly looks like a mistake because it opened the door for a Titan comeback. Mike McCoy needs to start trusting Rivers a little bit more, because he looks like he's on the right track.

20. St. Louis Rams: 1-2 (14)
This Rams team has been disappointing this year thus far, not living up to the hype surrounding either side of the ball. Their strong defensive line was pummeled by the Cowboys' front five, and DeMarco Murray was able to run right through them. Sam Bradford has also still showed little improvement despite a new cast of characters around him, and his NFL ceiling is starting to come into question.

21. New York Jets: 2-1 (28)
The New York Jets have looked ugly winning their two games this year, but style points count for little in the NFL. Rex Ryan has got his defense buying into everything he's telling them, and his schemes were practically unsolvable for the Bills' offense Sunday. Rookie quarterback Geno Smith bounced back nicely after a bad showing last week, and if his accuracy starts to improve he could be a solid investment for the future of this franchise.

22. Philadelphia Eagles: 1-2 (17)
The Eagles looked great working with Michael Vick the first two weeks, but this week Vick regressed into the turnover machine we saw last year. Chip Kelly is still figuring out how to best manage this team, as he slowed the pace down this week and his defense started off strong, but the result was that his offense looked hapless. It looks like Kelly is still figuring out how to run his system at the NFL level, and he needs to figure it out soon before Michael Vick or Lesean McCoy miss more than just a few snaps due to injuries.

23. Arizona Cardinals: 1-2 (19)
Protection continues to be an issue for the Cardinals, as left tackle Levi Brown cannot stop opposing defenders from getting to his quarterback. Until they get that issue fixed, it just doesn't look like this offense is going anywhere special. Rookie Tyrann Mathieu continues to make plays on the defensive side of the ball, but there's big holes in the middle of this defense, as no one was even able to slow Jimmy Graham down last week.

24. Buffalo Bills: 1-2 (24)
EJ Manuel did not have his best outing Sunday against the Jets, and while a lot of it is on an offensive line that allowed eight sacks, plenty of blame has to go to EJ as well. EJ has struggled to push the ball down the field so far this year, and Rex Ryan took full advantage of that by stacking the box against the running game. EJ has shown all the intangibles thus far that you would want in a franchise leader, but he needs to show he can make at least a few big plays or else he'll start getting comparisons to his predecessor at Florida State.

25. Cleveland Browns: 1-2 (31)
Well, the Browns aren't throwing the towel on 2013 after all. Brian Hoyer wasn't great by any means, but he did things from the pocket that Brandon Weeden still doesn't dream of doing. The return of receiver Josh Gordon from suspension was also a big break for Hoyer, as now he had a threat on the outside to take away attention from his threat on the inside, tight end Jordan Cameron. The Browns defense is also still nothing to sleep on, registering six sacks on Sunday and hanging tough when they were put in adverse situations.

26. Minnesota Vikings: 0-3 (25)
It's been a rough week for Vikings fans, but at least here they're at least ranked as the best of the worst teams (though the London match-up with Pittsburgh could change that). While there's a laundry list of things going wrong for the Vikings, their defense is at least forcing turnovers and some of their young players are showing a lot of promise (Xavier Rhodes and Cordarrelle Patterson both have received high marks so far from the people at Pro Football Focus). Here's hoping there's a brighter tomorrow still in store.

27. Pittsburgh Steelers: 0-3 (26)
The Steelers could get a potential boost this week with rookie running back Leveon Bell ready to make his regular season debut after battling a Linsfranc injury since the preseason. Big Ben needs some balance on offense quickly, as even though he made some big plays against Chicago, when asked to do too much he often gets hit or turns the ball over (and there was plenty of both against the Bears). This defense is showing its age much more than expected, as 0 turnovers in three games just isn't up to par with Mike Tomlin's standards.

28. Washington Redskins: 0-3 (23)
Every week, RGIII seems to get a little bit better but this defense plays the same way: awful. At this point, the Redskins would be in line to lose plenty of games even if RGIII was fully healthy. Unfortunately, he's not, and it doesn't look like he will be for several weeks still. At that point, this season is probably going to be too late to save for the 'Skins, and the most they're going to hope for is getting their star player healthy through the rest of the season.

29. New York Giants: 0-3 (20)
It's a weird time in the NFL when both the Steelers and Giants' organizations are crumbling before our very eyes. The offensive line gave up eight sacks and many more hits on Eli Manning against the Panthers, and they're very lucky their franchise quarterback walked out of there upright. Needless to say this defense hasn't been performing up to expectations either, but that should be considered less of an issue than the usually top-10 Giant offense getting blanked.

30. Oakland Raiders: 1-2 (30)
Hopefully Terrelle Pryor will be able to play again this Sunday after his concussion, because if not there's going to be little enjoyable about this Raider team. Pryor was able to make a few big plays happen against the fearsome Broncos, though his team was never really in that game. Matt Flynn may finally get his shot if Pryor can't go, but it's unlikely the unathletic Flynn is going to be able to survive behind that offensive line.

31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 0-3 (29)
Tampa has been the picture of dysfunction in the NFL this year, not the Jets as so many expected. After weeks of rumors in the media Greg Schiano made the move most saw coming and announced that rookie third round pick Mike Glennon would be starting at quarterback this week instead of the ineffective Josh Freeman. It's clear that Freeman was not the answer for this team going into the future, but if Glennon isn't ready yet, Schiano's as good as gone for the Bucs.

32. Jacksonville Jaguars: 0-3 (32)
The Jaguars' starters were worse than Seattle's backups. Parity doesn't exactly exist when it comes to teams 1 and 32.

Tuesday, September 24, 2013

Where do we go from here?

The Vikings are currently at 0-3 on the season, and many Vikings fans, sensing this year is going to turn out more like 2011 and 2012, have already given up hope on 2013. The offensive line is a mess, all three levels of the defense are struggling, and the man behind center is sadly who we thought he was. A reach in the first round who will not wind up being a long term starter at the NFL level. The coaching staff has been thoroughly outdone by its opponents throughout the first three games, and there is no doubt the Vikings are strategically behind the eight ball. There is little on this team that is working, and the odds now appear likely that we're going to see major shake-ups in this organization during the offseason. So, where do we go from here?

Well, for starters, any fans who now hope the Vikings throw in the towel and "tank for Teddy" (the Teddy being Louisville's hot quarterback prospect, who most likely will be the first pick in 2014) will be disappointed. The Vikings are not going to simply throw in the towel for this season, that is not what teams in professional sports do. It would be shameful for the Wilfs to inform the roster to simply give up on the season while profiting handsomely from the revenues created on game day. There is no guarantee the Vikings will even be able to grab the top spot in the draft anyway, as a pretty strong argument can be made that the Jaguars aren't winning a game this year. With the way this roster is performing through three games (and remember, many considered this to be the EASY part of their schedule), the Vikings are going to end up with a high pick whether they give up or not, and they most likely will have their pick of quarterbacks not named Bridgewater (if fans are curious, start watching Tajh Boyd of Clemson, Marcus Mariota of Oregon and Brett Hundley of UCLA). Not only would giving up serve no purpose for this team draft wise, it would alienate most fans and be an altogether shameful form of business practice.

There is, however, a difference between tanking a season and moving pieces on your roster to build towards the future. Despite public opinion, this is what the Browns were doing. Trent Richardson was not a part of their long term plans so they moved him while his value was high (through two games he wasn't exactly on a record setting pace, getting a first round pick for him in the offseason would have been difficult). The Browns are set up for the future, but as evidenced Sunday this coaching staff has not given up on the present even a little bit. For the Vikings to move forward as an organization, they are going to have to find a way to get value for pieces they will not need in the future while making sure to find time to develop their young players.

Unfortunately for the Vikings, there is little talent that they could unload and hope to receive something of value in return. Of everyone on the team, Toby Gerhart is the one most likely to be moved, as he is likely to walk away in free agency anyway during the offseason and with Adrian Peterson the Vikings don't need a great backup running back because he will rarely see the field. No doubt Speilman is already trying his best to shop Toby, but one team that had interest, the Colts, now it out of the picture because they received a far better offer from the Browns in Richardson. Other than that, few contenders seem to be searching for running back depth so Toby's market is likely pretty thin. Unless competition on the market heats up, the Vikings may only be looking at a fourth or fifth round pick as compensation for Toby, as really he has not shown enough in his career to be considered more than a backup rotational running back.

Who else could the Vikings look to trade? Your guess is as good as mine. Right now, with the state of the team, there are probably few assets teams want that the Vikings are willing to part with. The nucleus of the team is young and has potential, and that potential is worth holding onto if it can only be replaced by nameless draft picks as of now. One might think Jared Allen could be shipped off to a contending team, as he will likely depart in free agency this year anyway, but Allen has not played like himself these first few weeks and his cap hit (about $17 million) this year is huge compared to his lack of on field production. It's very unlikely that a contending team is willing to take that hit and offer anything substantial in return for Allen. The potential wild card here is Christian Ponder. Probably not during the season, but in the offseason when this team almost certainly moves in a different direction, Ponder might be traded. The compensation won't be great, but the Vikings would do well to completely cut ties with him and at least receive something back for their investment. Ponder is still young and athletic, so there is probably at least one team out there that thinks it will be able to make a suitable backup out of him. Bill Musgrave and this offense have done him no favors, which means another coach possibly thinks he can achieve some success outside of that system (and I can't completely disagree).

Since we brought him up, let's discuss number seven. Even this season, Ponder has given fans a few things to cheer about, but his inconsistency has held this team back and put it in the loss column. Ponder needs everything to be perfect around him to succeed. Last year, when the offensive line was playing great and Adrian Peterson was plowing through holes, Ponder could get it done. Now, with the line not playing up to their standards and Adrian trying to do too much against stacked boxes, Ponder was floundered. He's been inaccurate, turned the ball over, and failed to support his defense when they've given the ball to him on a turnover or needed him to stay on the field. More often than not, this offense looks lost and out of sync, and their confidence seems to be shattered. And that's the main reason Ponder needs to ride the bench starting in London. He is shattering the confidence of his teammates, and the Vikings need most of their offensive players for the foreseeable future.

Matt Cassel isn't going to be the answer. But right now this offense has no confidence in itself and it needs a spark somewhere, and there's nowhere else to turn. There  is no depth on the offensive line that is ready to replace any of the starters, and some of their problems may simply be a matter of healthy (Center John Sullivan looks like he still isn't 100% after offseason knee surgery, and something was wrong with right tackle Phil Loadholt Sunday). The wide receivers haven't underachieved at all, they just need someone who can give them the ball. Not to mention, the future of your wide receiver coirps, Cordarrelle Patterson, spent most of his offseason working with Matt Cassel at quarterback. If the Vikings think it would help Patterson's development in any way to have Cassel out at quarterback, then that is a move they have to make.

Defensively, Antoine Winfield isn't coming to help. He's made plenty of money in his career, so he's not going to accept a low offer from a team out of contention. There are no backups sitting on the bench (period, in the case of the secondary) waiting to take a starter's job, so there is little chance of improving this defense throughout the season. Desmond Bishop could start to see more snaps, but it's clear the Vikings just see him as a weakside linebacker in the base defense, meaning that even if he starts he's going to be pulled off the field in nickel situations. What the defense needs to do is continue to force turnovers, and just hope the offense will start to get some points off of those.

There are no easy fixes when it comes to this roster, and it doesn't look like the Vikings are going to be able to right the ship this season, at least not with this coaching staff. The Vikings are simply going to have to soldier on through the rest of the season, playing hard so Patterson, Wright, Smith, Rhodes and Floyd turn into the players the organization needs them to be. Those players are the ones to watch for the rest of the season. For the rest of the veterans, a fresh perspective this offseason, or maybe even a change of scenery, most likely will need to happen for them to achieve success again.

NFL Week 3 Tuesday Whip-Around: Plenty of Unexpected Action in the NFL

While week three looked like it lacked an exciting match-up going into the week, several contests didn't stick to the script many thought they would follow. Analysts everywhere groaned as their predictions went awry, leading to a bad day for the prognosticators but an interesting day for football fans. In case you missed any of the action, here's a summary of the big lessons learned from week three:

Chiefs 26, Eagles 16

  1. People can ask whether the Philadelphia offense was simply bad Thurday night or if the Chiefs defense is just that good. While the Eagles didn't have the best night, this defense is THAT good.
  2. After two games without an interception Michael Vick returned to his turnover prone self, giving the Chiefs' defense the ball far too many times on a night where his defense stepped up for him.
  3. Micheal Vick and Lesean McCoy continue to be hit hard in their new offense, McCoy had an amazing game but had to be taken into the locker room before halftime to have an injury examined. The Eagles' future health gets more troubling game by game.
Ravens 30, Texans 9

  1. The Ravens defense is humming now after their opening day struggles, shutting down the Texans' attack and keeping them out of the end zone all game.
  2. Joe Flacco stepped it up in this game when the offense was without Ray Rice, proving he's worth at least some of that big money contract.
  3. The Texans finally slipped up after close calls in their first two games. Gary Kubiak's squad isn't dominating early like they did last year, and their third straight division title is very much in jeopardy.
Panthers 38, Giants 0

  1. Superman was back on the field Sunday for the Panthers, as Cam Newton finally was able to get this offense clicking.
  2. The Giants offensive line gave them absolutely zero chance for success Sunday, their non-existent running game had nowhere to go and Eli Manning was beaten to a pulp.
  3. For the umpteenth time Tom Coughlin finds himself on the hot seat in New York, while Ron Rivera may have done enough to cool his seat down for a while.
Bengals 34, Packers 30

  1. Cincinnati was able to win a close game at the end despite turning the ball over four times to the Packers. That's when you know you're legit.
  2. Injuries keep piling up for the Packers, as Clay Matthews and James Starks were added to the pile of the walking wounded. Luckily, the Packers are now on their bye week, which should allow several of their key players to heal up.
  3. Aaron Rodgers wasn't himself most of the day, he was hit early and threw his first multiple interception game since 2010. He had a heated exchange with coach Mike McCarthy on the sideline, but count of these two to have things figured out after the bye.

Cowboys 31, Rams 7

  1. DeMarco Murray had the day many Cowboys' fans hoped he was capable of, rushing for 175 yards against the Rams.
  2. Tony Romo really likes having a run game, as he was extremely efficient in the passing game when he didn't have to shoulder the offense himself.
  3. The Rams' defense just hasn't been as good as advertised throughout the first few weeks, instead of a top tier unit it's merely been an average one.

Patriots 23, Buccaneers 3

  1. Tom Brady is finally finding a rhythm with his new receivers, posting his best passer rating of the year Sunday (96).
  2. Bill Belichick has his defense competitive again after leaning on the offense the past few seasons, meaning this team could be scary if the offense really gets cooking (they're still undefeated, after all).
  3. Josh Freeman is playing to get himself benched. He's completed less than 50% of his passes in every game this year and you have to think before long rookie Mike Glennon is going to see the field (he was already warming up on the sideline Saturday afternoon).

Saints 31, Cardinals 7

  1. As predicted, Jimmy Graham had a great day facing the Cardinals. They tried to cover him a number of different ways, but he beat them all and finished with nine catches for 134 yards.
  2. Rob Ryan has given this defense a new swagger and it's getting big results on the field. This defense doesn't look that talented on paper, but it's clear that they believe they are.

Titans 20, Chargers 17

  1. This day belonged to Jake Locker, who finished with 299 yards and a game winning drive that kept the Titans tied atop the AFC South.
  2. The Titans continue to be underestimated and they continue to fight hard every game. The fight for a wild card spot looks pretty competitive in the AFC, but the Titans aren't going down easy.
  3. Antonio Gates showed up for the Chargers (five catches for 55 yards) but their depth at receiver showed up when Eddie Royal didn't make an impact. Without him, they're basically out of receivers.

Lions 27, Redskins 20

  1. RGIII posted his first points in a first half this season, as he continues to get better week to week, even though the Redskins' season looks to be slipping away.
  2. RGIII started making plays with his legs again, and that unsurprisingly led to an extremely efficient day on the ground for Alfred Morris.
  3. Nate Burleson showed he could be a great compliment to Calvin Johnson finally, finishing with 116 yards to Johnson's 115 (it doesn't look like that will last though, he broke his arm this morning in a car accident).

Dolphins 27, Falcons 23

  1. Ryan Tannehill has steered his team to 3-0 despite shaky protection around him. Tannehill is making his move into the upper-echelon of NFL quarterbacks, get on the bandwagon while it's hot!
  2. The Dolphins missed injured nose tackle Pat Solai against the Falcons, as they allowed over 130 yards on the ground which allowed the Falcons to control the clock most of the day.
  3. The Falcons are not in great shape right now. Steven Jackson is out multiple weeks, Roddy White looks far from 100%, and Tony Gonzalez is still showing rust after missing most of training camp and preseason. If they can't get their act together fast the Saints are going to take firm control of their division.

Jets 27, Bills 20

  1. Rex Ryan is having a lot of fun with his new defensive front. The Jets had eight sacks on the day from eight different players.
  2. Geno Smith is struggling with turnovers, but he put on a good show Sunday after receiving a lot of criticism for his week two performance. If Smith can establish some consistency this Jets team could actually make some noise, despite being written off by just about everyone before the season (including me).
  3. The Bills' offensive line struggled all game and CJ Spiller left early with a knee injury, which added up to a rough outing for rookie quarterback EJ Manuel. EJ is still having trouble pushing the ball up the field, and that's limiting what this offense is able to accomplish.

Seahawks 45, Jaguars 17

  1. Well, this game was about as close as everyone expected it to be.
  2. Travaris Jackson had a perfect passer rating and backup running back Christine Michael scampered through the Jaguars' defense. The Seahawks have crazy good depth.
  3. Chad Henne lost his spot to Blaine Gabbert after the game, but in the scheme of things, does it really matter? The odds of either of them being around next year (or even on a roster) are slim.

Colts 27, 49ers 7

  1. Trent Richardson didn't have a big impact on the field in his first game as a Colt, but it was clear his presence was enough to make Ahmad Bradshaw start to run angry (19 carries for 95 yards).
  2. The Colts defense looked like the Seahawks did last Sunday, covering up all of Kaepernick's receivers and giving him no room to run.
  3. Frank Gore was made after the game he didn't get the ball more, and he has a great point (11 carries for 82 yards). Unfortunately, his defense wasn't giving him the ball back.

Bears 40, Steelers 23

  1. These defenses are very different when it comes to forcing turnovers. The Bears forced five against the Steelers while Pittsburgh has yet to record a takeaway all season.
  2. Big Ben was asked to do far too much during Sunday's action. He made a lot of great plays with his natural elusiveness and threw for over 400 yards, but he turned the ball over too (four on the day, with another fumble that he recovered himself).
  3. The Bears' offense still isn't lighting up the scoreboard, but they know when to step it up. With the Steelers starting to find their way back into the game, Jay Cutler led the Bears down the field to a touchdown, and the game was never in doubt after that.

Broncos 37, Raiders 21
  1. Peyton Manning is waging an all out assault on the record books this year, he is on pace to shatter just about every major single season passing record right now, and has yet to throw an interception.
  2. The Broncos split carries in the backfield, but Ronnie Hillman looked the best this game, as his speed allowed him to burst through quick holes that were formed by the Raiders trying to stop Peyton.
  3. One week after having a "comeback" game, Darren McFadden made no impact Monday night, finishing with 12 carries for only nine yards.

Sunday, September 22, 2013

Browns Best Vikings: Analysis of Vikings' Third Straight Loss

To the outside world, it appeared that the Cleveland Browns had given up hope on 2013. After trading Trent Richardson, and rumors began to circulate they were willing to part with other assets, most analysts pointed to 2014 and assumed the Browns would not be playing to win Sunday. The Browns saw things differently. The Browns stayed tenacious the entire game, and the Vikings lost their second straight game on a late game touchdown drive that put them up 31-27, after their offense failed to close the game out. The Vikings were the one who played like they didn't want this win, not the Browns, and questions now have to come as to which of these teams truly needs to start looking at 2014.

Offense: C-
To give this offense credit, they put up 27 points on a tough defense. If you had told any NFL analyst that the Vikings would score 27 points in this contest, every one of them would have picked the Vikings to win. But they didn't. The offense scored points, but they gave the ball away three times. Half of their drives resulted in a three and out or a turnover, a big mark of inconsistency for this offense. They failed to support their defense, scoring only 10 points with the four turnovers their defense gave them. Finally, once again, the offense had a chance to close a game out late, but went three and out twice and took almost no time off the clock. A first down could have won the game; instead, the Browns march down for the win.

Quarterback: C-
Christian Ponder has already received plenty of heat for his performance, but before criticizing him it needs to be acknowledged that he didn't have the best help today. His offensive line failed to protect him and his defense turned in an abysmal performance. Ponder still cannot be excused though, as he still could have helped his team play better. Ponder was off target most of the day on throws not around the line of scrimmage, missing several open throws all over the field. He did not put his receivers in optimal position to succeed most of the day, making them work hard for catches. He threw another bad interception where he didn't see a linebacker in the middle of the field. Ponder tried to go keep but defenders (rightfully) still don't respect his ability to beat them with his arm. They stacked the box to stop Adrian Peterson most of the day, and even with crowded lines of scrimmage Ponder only average 5.4 yards per attempt. Ponder showed off his mobility often today, rushing for two touchdowns, but his arm still doesn't show the ability to beat NFL defenses.

Running Backs: C
Adrian Peterson did not have a good day on the ground, and when that happens it's almost never a good day for the Vikings. Peterson said he played hesitant against the Chicago Bears, and he played a little timid again against the Browns. Peterson didn't trust his blocks or didn't trust his own ability, and AP left some yards on the field (and that's a rare statement). Peterson rushed for 88 yards, but it came on 25 carries, meaning he only averaged 3.5 yards per carry. Peterson also fumbled the football for the second straight game, and he needs to protect the ball better for this team to be successful.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends: C
Ponder made things harder than they needed to be for his receivers and tight ends, but they could have picked up their play to help him out too. Even though Ponder didn't throw perfect balls most of the day, there were still a lot of catchable balls that ended up hitting the turf. There were times receivers failed to separate from the Browns' secondary, and Ponder just doesn't have the confidence right now to throw them open. Rookie Cordarrelle Patterson was much more involved in the game plan, and even though he only recorded two catches, he was just as noticeable as any Vikings' receiver.

Offensive Line: D
The offensive line had its struggles in the first two games, but it looked like it was getting its act together as the game in Chicago went on. Unfortunately, they regressed mightily against the Browns, failing to open up the run game and surrendering six sacks to the Browns' defense. Ponder had few clean pockets to work from, as pressure was constantly coming from up the middle. Phil Loadholt personally gave up two sacks, looking nothing like the player the Vikings thought they were getting when they extended his contract. The unit's regression is severely troubling, and they somehow have to find a way to get it together if they want this team to be successful.

Defense: D+
The script of the Vikings's game on defense Sunday played out eerily similar to their performance at Chicago. They gave up plenty of points early. They then went into the locker room, defensive coordinator Alan Williams made adjustment, and they proceeded to give up no points in the second half. That is, until the Vikings really needed a stop, as the two minute defense failed again, giving up a late game sealing touchdown. They forced four turnovers for the second straight game, their offense just sadly failed to capitalize. The defense deserves plenty of heat for this loss despite the turnovers though, as they gave up 409 total yards and 31 points to an offense that looks as talent thin as any in the NFL. That's simply not acceptable, and that's one of the main reasons why this team is starting this season 0-3.

Defensive Line: D
Coming into this game, it seemed like the Vikings' defensive line was ready for a huge day, as the Cleveland Browns had given up 11 sacks over their first two games. Instead, the line could not generate any pressure throughout the first half, and the defensive line only mustered one sack on the day. The Vikings had to resort to blitzing their linebackers frequently in the second half because their front four was not getting to Brian Hoyer. They did manage to hold the Browns' ground game quiet, but it was clear that the Browns weren't expecting big things from their running game as they rarely gave the ball to their running backs (Hoyer instead attempted 54 passes). The line did manage to force an interception when rookie Shariff Floyd hit Hoyer's hand while he was throwing, but other than that this unit did not make their presence felt on a day where they were expected to soar.

Linebackers: C+
During the first two weeks on the season, the Vikings' linebackers appeared to be the weak spot on this defense, and if nothing else they weren't that on Sunday. The linebackers still struggled out in coverage, but they were relied on a lot less in that aspect of the game against the Browns. The linebackers were asked to blitz often in this game, and Erin Henderson made the most out of that opportunity, recording two sacks, or double what they entire defensive line managed to record. Henderson and Chad Greenway also each recorded an interception. The Vikings still have room for improvement at the second level, but on a day where most of the defense struggles, at least the linebackers came up and made plays.

Secondary: D
The Vikings' secondary was the weak point today, and depth on the back end is already a major concern for this team. The Vikings gave up over 300 yards through the air, and the secondary only made third string quarterback Hoyer pay once for his aggressiveness. Harrison Smith recorded the one interception for the Vikings' secondary, and made several tackles to show that he's one of the best young safeties in the league. Smith is not blameless though, as he is the one who gave up the game winning touchdown to Browns' tight end Jordan Cameron. Smith's partner Jamarcus Sanford fared no better against Cameron, giving up two touchdowns to the tight end. Sanford was out of position all day, until he injured his hamstring late in the game and Andrew Sendejo was forced to take his place (Sendejo was okay but missed a big tackle on the last drive). Cornerback Chris Cook injured his groin early in the game, and that forced the Vikings to rely on their reserve corners for almost the entire game. One of those reserves, AJ Jefferson, had a brutal game, as he was targeted twice and gave up two long plays, one of them for a touchdown. Second year player Josh Robinson also made life easy for opposing receivers, though the lack of a pass rush did not help him. Rookie Xavier Rhodes was rarely targeted and fought tough all game, and he at least provided hope for the future of this position group. Punt returner Marcus Sherels was forced to play plenty of snaps due to the various injuries in the secondary, and while he was targeted often he gave up no big plays and forced plenty of incompletions. Sherels should be applauded for his effort, but he should not be seeing regular snaps. Rick Speilman needs to beg Antoine Winfield to come back.

Special Teams: C-
The Vikings' special teams struggled in coverage last week against the Bears, and it still appears that there are some issues this unit needs to work out. Rookie Jeff Locke was solid on the day, most of his punts covered good distance, and Blair Walsh was perfect on all field goals on extra points. Special teams coverage was still shaky though, giving up a big punt return that set the Browns up inside Viking territory. The Browns also had two huge special teams played that the Vikings were completely unprepared for, as they were able to convert on a fake punt for significant yardage, and converted a fake field goal for a touchdown. There's a reason that you never see special teams fakes at the NFL level: they're not supposed to work.

Coaching: F
There's no way around it: the coaching staff failed the Vikings in this game. Despite having a much more talented roster, the Vikings came out flat-footed against the Browns and whatever game plan was in place clearly was not effective. This team was unprepared for two special teams fakes that were key to the Browns' success, and that's on the coaching staff for not being ready for those. The two-minute defense failed to improve and the Vikings allowed a second straight game winning drive. Leslie Fraizer also took a penalty late in the first half that cost the team 15 yards and may have cost them a shot at reaching the end zone. This was a game that was set-up for an easy Vikings' victory, and the coaches have to take the fall for allowing this team to play sloppy football against a weak opponent.

Saturday, September 21, 2013

Browns all-in on 2014, but still a Gamble

After trading Trent Richardson for a first round pick and making it very clear the organization is not content with their quarterback situation, the Cleveland Browns seem to be already looking to 2014. The Browns come to the Metrodome not really looking to pick up their first win of the season, the message they seem to be sending is that they would much rather lose to try to ensure a high 2014 draft selection. Unfortunately for the Browns, the player they traded is a much more proven commodity in the NFL than any player they will select in 2014. The draft is always a gamble and sometimes you lose. Browns fans are no stranger to this, as so far they are the team that drew the short straw in the 2012 quarterback class, Brandon Weeden. Sometimes there's more than just one short straw though, as evidenced by the quarterback class of 2011.

Unlike the class of 2012, it seems like all but one of the straws in 2011 may be short. Cam Newton had a sensational rookie year, but is still struggling to bring his franchise wins. Andy Dalton is serviceable, but even with a large amount of talent around him he still hasn't developed into an above-average starter. Blaine Gabbert performed bad enough for Jaguars fans to start clamoring for Tim Tebow. Jake Locker's accuracy still isn't any better, and he's barely averaging over five yards per pass attempt. Christian Ponder, sadly, looks like he has been vastly overdrafted. Most would say the one bright spot in this class in Colin Kaepernick, who has already started a Super Bowl, but he was taken last out of this group and was very raw coming out of college. It's very possible that if Kaepernick was taken by another team and didn't get the chance to be trained by Jim Harbaugh he could be just another disappointment on this list. On the year so far, this group of quarterbacks is completing less than 60% of their passes, thrown twelve interceptions to only 13 touchdowns, and is averaging a 73.2 quarterback rating. Their teams are also a combined 3-11 with them as starters this year.

Only one year separates the 2011 class with a class that looks like in includes four potential long term answers at quarterback. Browns fans can do nothing else but wait for 2014, but the big question is, what kind of year will it be?

Friday, September 20, 2013

Vikings Preview Week 3: Browns lying down?

Coming off a last second loss in Chicago, morale in the Vikings' locker room was low following the game and fan optimism was not high. A third straight loss to open the season would practically doom the Vikings' chances of 2013 success before the season was even through its first quarter (only three NFL teams since 1990 have made the playoffs with a 0-3 start). The Vikings desperately need a win at home against the Cleveland Browns Sunday, and luckily, the Browns seemed determined to give it to them. Browns' starting quarterback Brandon Weeden is out of this game with a thumb injury, and instead of starting their backup quarterback, Jason Campbell, who has over 70 NFL starts under his belt, they are going to start 3rd string quarterback Brian Hoyer, who has one NFL start and under 100 career pass attempts. Hoyer won't have a ton of support around him, either, as Wednesday Cleveland shocked the NFL when they traded their starting running back Trent Richardson (who was picked #3 overall in the 2012 draft) to the Indianapolis Colts for a first round pick. The jettison of Richardson seemed to send a clear message to the rest of the NFL that the Browns are laying down for the rest of 2013 and playing for the 2014 draft. The Browns have a clear need at quarterback and it seems the front office is doing whatever possible to ensure they have a top selection in 2014 in order to have a chance at a franchise changer. Morale has to be low in Cleveland since the organization has all but directly stated they are punting on 2013, and the Vikings need to take advantage to grab their first win of the season.

While the stars seemed aligned for a Vikings' victory due to the talent the Browns are putting on the field, there will still be several things to look for when these two squads meet up:

Offense
Are the Vikings going to be able to block for AP?
The Vikings have not played up to their talent on their offensive line so far this season, and as a result Adrian Peterson has struggled to get going. Outside of his long opening day touchdown run, Peterson is only averaging 2.7 yards per carry. Peterson admitted to the Star Tribune this week that he wasn't feeling like himself at Chicago, that he wasn't trusting his blocking, but with the lack of lanes forming for him it's no surprise he lost a little faith in his lineman. His blockers played better later in the game during half two, but Peterson is missing his fullback Jerome Felton (who is suspended for one more week) and tight end Rhett Ellison (Ellison barely played in Chicago and is out for Sunday), his two main lead blockers. This offensive line needs to step up and pave the way for the MVP, but it's going to be hard against a tough Cleveland defense that is holding teams to under 60 rushing yards per game this season.

How much Patterson are we going to see?
Through the first two games, the Vikings first round wide receiver, who they traded four draft picks to New England in order to get, has seen only 11 snaps on the field. In his limited action Patterson has at least made an impact for the team, catching three passes for 24 yards (which resulted in two first downs) and taking a kickoff all the way back for a touchdown. Patterson has already flashed the explosive ability that made him so tantalizing a prospect to scouts before the draft, but for some reason the Vikings had largely kept him off the field this season. There's no doubt the Vikings could use Patterson's play-making ability on offense, they don't exactly have a surplus of game-breakers, and coach Leslie Fraizer said his limited playing time will be "rectified" this week in a press conference. It will be interesting to see if Fraizer keep his word, and how exactly the Vikings plan on using their young, explosive talent.

Can the Vikings find the end zone?
The big story at Chicago was the inability of the Vikings to find the end zone if the second half, a failure that led to the Bears' late comeback. The Vikings are going to have to stop settling for threes if they want to have any hope of repeating last year's success, as other teams will be unforgiving if the Vikings cannot put them away. Once the Vikings get into the red zone it will also be interesting to monitor how the offense decides to use Christian Ponder, as no matter how you slice it, taking the ball out of Ponder's hands in the red zone last week shows a lack of confidence in their starting quarterback.

Defense
Will Vikings be able to tee-off on Brian Hoyer?
Jared Allen and Brian Robison must be absolutely salivating at the prospect of facing the Browns this week, as Cleveland has been able to give their quarterbacks almost no protection in the pocket. Through two weeks, Cleveland quarterbacks have already been sacked 11 times on the year, or just one under Jared Allen's total number of sacks a season ago. The Vikings have not been good at getting after the quarterback so far this year, with only one sack in their first two games, but they applied plenty of pressure against Chicago and their defense could get up to full gear if the Browns still can't protect whoever's under center.

How much will Desmond Bishop see the field?
Much like Cordarrelle Patterson, linebacker Desmond Bishop has seen a puzzling lack of action on the field. The Vikings didn't give up a package of draft picks for Bishop, but he is a former Super Bowl winner and the Vikings' linebacking corps have been the team's clear weak link through two games. If the linebackers continue to struggle (somehow) against the Browns offense, the coaching staff needs to give Bishop more of a chance to show what he can do for them on the field. There have simply been too many missed tackles and players out of position and the defense's second level, and the Vikings have a potential solution just waiting on their sideline.

Can this game serve as a palate-cleanser for this defense?
The Vikings defense has been a major disappointment so far this season, as they are currently ranked 29th in yards allowed and 30th in points allowed. After the Bears' game winning drive to end last Sunday there was also some finger pointing in the locker room and plenty of angry players. However, with the Browns basically throwing in the towel on offense, the defense has a chance to step up and turn in a performance that helps erase the memories at Soldier Field. There is no match-up on the field the Vikings should not be able to handle, and the defense need to take advantage of this opportunity to build up momentum and get themselves back on track.

Special Teams
Is kickoff coverage going to improve?
To put this simply, Devin Hester averaged 49 yards per kickoff return over five returns. Cleveland has no one on their roster as talented as Hester, so the Vikings have no excuse for not getting the Browns' return man down. Mike Priefer most likely did plenty of yelling throughout the week, and it would be shocking to see his coverage units have another sloppy performance.

Final Prediction: 21-10 Vikings
The Browns want to lose this game, and the Vikings need a win, so this result should be a foregone conclusion. If this game turns into a nail-biter, or if somehow the Vikings drop this game at home, change is going to start coming to the organization, and the Vikings might start throwing in the towel just as the Browns have done.

Thursday, September 19, 2013

Special Teams Stud Andrew Sendejo gets Two-Year Contract Extension

The Vikings front office made their first contract move of the regular season today by extending safety Andrew Sendejo's contract for another two years, locking him up until 2016. Sendejo is a standout special teams player for the Vikings, and is currently listed as fourth on the Vikings depth chart at safety behind starters Harrison Smith and Jamarcus Sanford, as well as backup Mistral Raymond. Ian Rappaport was the first to report this news, saying Sendejo's extension is worth a total of two million dollars.

NFL Game Picks: Week 3

Well another week, another barely above .500 performance for me in my picks. A huge number of close NFL games were decided in the final minutes last week, and while that may not be good for my picks record, it surely makes for some exciting football. Of course, other times I was just blatantly wrong, as in the case of the Seahawks-49ers game.Hopefully my record will fare better in the third week of NFL action, right before teams start taking their byes and trying to work through their problems. Through two weeks, I sit at 18-14 on the season, and I've got a lot of catching up to do.

Chiefs at Eagles
30-20 Eagles
Andy Reid will return to Philadelphia Thursday night to play the team he coached for so many years, but he won't get the outcome he was expecting. Chip Kelly's offense is simply too explosive and the Chiefs' defense may have trouble slowing the fast pace attack down. If this game turns into a shootout, it's hard to bet on Alex Smith over Michael Vick, which could spoil Reid's homecoming.

Texans at Baltimore
20-14 Texans
Expect plenty of defense and not a ton of offense with these two teams, as the battle for field position will be critical in this game. The Ravens have Ray Rice injured (though it's possible he might still play) and their offensive line doesn't look ready to handle J.J. Watt. Joe Flacco and his new targets have not had much success throwing the ball either, so he'll have to hit on a few deep shots to get this team moving. The Texans expect Andre Johnson to play, but so far Arian Foster has not looked dominant, and he's still the engine this team runs through. If the Ravens slow down the run game, Matt Schaub is going to have to make sure he doesn't throw another ill-timed interception to give this game away.

Giants at Panthers
24-14 Giants
A battle between two teams fighting to stay relevant very early on in the season. Neither team can afford the death knell that would be an 0-2 start. In the end, there is no doubt future Hall of Fame coach Tom Coughlin is going to make this team play better than they did in the first two weeks, while Ron Rivera already seems to be on his way out the door. The Panthers' secondary shouldn't be able to handle the Giants' aerial attack, while Cam Newton and his offense have struggled to get things going in the first two games.

Packers at Bengals
28-21 Packers
Aaron Rodgers reminded everyone last week just how amazing a quarterback he is, and it should be clear to Bengals fans after Sunday just how big of a gap there is between Rodgers and their quarterback.There's no doubt Andy Dalton can be effective with all the talent around him, but Rodgers' presence just makes the team around him more talented than they were without him. The Bengals' one weakness on defense is their secondary, and Rodgers should be able to exploit that by getting the ball out of his hands quickly, neutralizing the Bengals' strong front.

Rams at Cowboys
24-21 Rams
I keep rolling with the Rams every week, but another slow start may cause me to start doubting my sleeper pick for the playoffs. The Rams showed plenty of heart battling back from a 24-3 hole against the Falcons, but they simply can't fall that far behind against quality opponents on the road. Jared Cook is going to have to show up again like he did week one, instead of almost disappearing from the stat sheet. The Cowboys are going to need to get their ground game going to give Tony Romo some balance, but that's proved pretty hard to do against St. Louis. Dez Bryant is going to need to play hard all four quarters for the Cowboys to walk out of this one.

Browns at Vikings
21-10 Vikings
Christian Ponder will be benched and Leslie Fraizer will be fired if the Vikings lose this game, as this week it seems as if the Browns are practically giving this game away. They are starting their third string quarterback, and they just sent their best offensive player to another team. The Browns are clearly punting on the rest of 2013 and hoping for the best in the future, and it's the Vikings job to oblige their request.

Buccaneers at Patriots
15-12 Patriots
Signs point to this being an ugly game between two teams that are not exactly playing good football right now. The Patriots get the edge for being at home, and Bill Bilichick knows enough about his good friend Greg Schiano to keep that team from having a ton of success. Tom Brady needs to continue to buy time for his weapons to get healthy, and he most likely is going to struggle to put together a functional offense against a defense that played the Saints very tough last week. Josh Freeman is almost begging to be benched (or traded) at this point, so the Patriots should have no problem holding Tampa's attack down either.

Cardinals at Saints
27-20 Saints
Picking against the Saints in the Superdome is never a smart thing to do, as the Saints have a good chance of staying perfect on the season and taking charge of the NFC South. Tight end Jared Cook had a great day week one against the Cardinals, and Sean Payton and Drew Brees must be drooling over the match-ups they can get with tight end Jimmy Graham (who had 179 yards just last week). The Saints defense appears more than capable of holding its own throughout the season, though maybe another Patrick Peterson pass or catch will be enough to throw them off.

Chargers at Titans
21-14 Chargers
The Philip Rivers redemption tour continues with a win on the road against the Titans. The Titans' defense has been playing extremely tough so far this season and they almost caused me to go with the Titans, but the  offense has too many questions for me to pick them over Rivers. Jake Locker simply can't push the ball accurately just about anywhere, and the passing game allows defenders to load the box against Chris Johnson (Locker averaged under five yards per attempt last week, on 30 attempts). The Titans simply don't have a quarterback right now, and without that it's hard to win in the NFL today.

Lions at Redskins
33-28 Lions
I want to have faith that RGIII is going to start to redeem himself in front in his home crowd, but his offensive line has struggled and they're going against one of the best defensive lines in the business. The Redskins' defense has also pulled the team out of games early, and it's very possible that Matthew Stafford and Megatron could roll right past them just as the Eagles and Packers have done. The Redskins are going to fall into an early hole again, but Jim Schwartz's undisciplined team is going to make enough mistakes to let them back in the game. The problem is that it just doesn't look like Washington knows how to win yet.

Falcons at Dolphins
27-24 Dolphins
My upset pick of the week again goes against the Atlanta Falcons, who were so kind as to prove me wrong last week. This time could be different though, as they are now on the road against a Dolphins team trending up after a big win on the road against the Colts. Miami's defense cannot be taken lightly, and if the Falcons aren't able to generate a rushing attack like last week, Cameron Wake is going to be aiming for Matt Ryan on every single play, not a huge recipe for success. Ryan Tannehill is looking more and more mature as a passer, and he and Mike Wallace have a chance to abuse some of the Falcons' young corners.

Bills at Jets
17-10 Bills
The battle of the rookie signal callers goes to the one picked earlier, in this case Bills' quarterback EJ Manuel. EJ has been good but not great in his first two starts, but that's all this team has needed him to be, and this team is going to be spurred on by the high emotions following their comeback win against the Panthers. Meanwhile, there's still plenty of doubt in Florham Park about their rookie quarterback, and it's fair to wonder whether Mark Sanchez would be starting for this team if he was healthy. Geno Smith has plenty of time to prove himself capable while Sanchez is recovering, but the early returns are not looking great so far.

Jaguars at Seahawks
42-6 Seahawks
This match-up just seems unfair. The worst offense in the league will go against the best defense in the league, in a stadium where a new record was just set for noise level. The silver lining is that at least the Jaguars will stay on track to be at the top of the 2014 draft, now that the Browns have firmly announced their intention to compete with them for that spot.

Colts at 49ers
28-27 49ers
Jim Harbaugh's former protege comes to visit Sunday, in a classic match-up of master against student. Andrew Luck just received a ton of help from his front office in the form of Trent Richardson, and the new balance he should bring to the Colts' offense could open up plenty of lanes for Luck to throw the ball into. Harbaugh is going to know his former pupil's tendencies though, and he's going to have his team ready to make a statement after being embarrassed Sunday night against their division rivals.

Bears at Steelers
24-13 Bears
The Bears continue to look like a team ready to make a statement, while a lot of Steelers fans are ready to throw in the Terrible Towel. Todd Haley could not get the offense to move effectively against the Bengals Monday night, and having a short week to figure out another tough defense will be tough for him. The Steelers will also be facing a rejuvenated Jay Cutler, who has fixed quite a few of the holes in his game, except his propensity of turning the ball over. Too bad the Steelers' defense has yet to force a turnover on the year.

Raiders at Broncos
33-17 Broncos
I'm predicting that this game will at least be closer than many people are anticipating, as Terrelle Pryor's legs will at least help keep the ball out of Peyton Manning's hands. That doesn't mean the Broncos' attack will have any trouble marching up and down the field Sunday, as they appear to be the class of this conference by a wide margin. Despite plenty of concern throughout the offseason, the Broncos are going to get through half of Von Miller's suspension undefeated.