Thursday, September 12, 2013

NFL Game Picks: Week 2

It was a wild week around the NFL week one, and in the end I was unable to predict many of the twists and turns of the game, going 9-7 in my predictions week one. Let's hope week two is going to be a little kinder, since now there's at least some real football knowledge to go off of. Disappointing teams like the Steelers and Vikings have been taken notice of, while the Eagles already are sprinting off to a good start. Needless to say, my predictions for those teams are slightly different from last week.

Jets at Patriots
21-18 Patriots
The first game of the week pits two 1-0 division rival against each other, and this game may be closer than you might think. With Tom Brady already losing several weapons due to injury, Rex Ryan should have a great game plan for getting after Tom Brady and the offense, while Bill Bilichick should also have a solid plan for messing with rookie Geno Smith. This game is going to be completely about two defensive masterminds trying to out think each other to put their offense in favorable spots, but in the end you can't bet against Tom Brady in close games.

Rams at Falcons
Rams over Falcons 23-20
My hot upset of the week, the Falcons drop a game in the Georgia Dome and already fall two games behind the New Orleans Saints (assuming, of course, the Saints win). The rationale is simple, the Falcons' offensive line failed to hold back the Saints' weakened pass rush last week, so they should struggle even more holding back the "Thunder Duo" of the Rams. Sam Bradford stepped up when his team needed to last week, leading a game winning drive, and this offense is going to continue building on that momentum with another last minute drive to cap off this upset on the road. Jared Cook will continue to make defenses look silly trying to stop him, and Tavon Austin will prove electric and show everyone why he was worth the 8th overall pick.

Browns at Ravens
20-13 Ravens
After being blown out last Thursday, the Ravens get themselves organized over a long week and are able to rebound against the AFC North's usual punching bag, the Browns. This defense needs an easier match-up than Peyton Manning to start to gel, and Brandon Weeden should provide just that coming off an outing where he tossed three interceptions and his receivers failed to help him out. Joe Flacco also needs some help from his receivers and running game, but look for this offense to start to gain momentum in a game where they should be in control most of the time.

Panthers at Bills
17-14 Panthers
The Panthers front seven held down the Seahawks offense for most of the game Sunday, and they should be able to continue to dominate against the Bills. Running backs CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson will be contained most of the game, and rookie EJ Manuel struggles to sustain drives on his own right now. Cam Newton needs to get something happening against a much easier defense, or else he may need to bring out his suggestion box again.

Vikings at Bears
24-18 Bears
The Bears have been very successful against the Vikings at home in recent years, and it looks like that streak is going to continue this year. Reggie Bush tormented the Vikings' defense last week and Chicago running back Matt Forte should pose many of the same problems for them. The Bears' defense has no problem matching up with the Vikings right now, and the odds that Ponder can keep the football away from the Bears' two big cornerbacks just aren't good, considering the way he played in Detroit.

Redskins at Packers
30-24 Packers
After getting burned in the pocket by a read-option quarterback week one, the Packers should be more successful in their second attempt. RGIII didn't look confident in the pocket until the fourth quarter of his first game, and his injury may make the Packers more aggressive than they were against the healthy Colin Kaepernick. Aaron Rodgers should have a field day against the Redskins' leaky back end, and his receivers will have big days as Green Bay grabs their first win of the season.

Titans at Texans
24-14 Texans
The Titans excitement over their upset of the Steelers is short lived, as their division rival reminds them that they still have a long ways to go before being considered a threat. Matt Schaub looked excellent in his first outing of the season, and the addition of Deandre Hopkins to the passing game is helping him spread the ball around much more judiciously this year, which should open up more running room for Arian Foster and Ben Tate. Jake Locker stayed turnover free against the Steelers, but facing a quality opponent on the road may make it too hard for him to repeat that performance.

Dolphins at Colts
21-17 Colts
Two top picks from the 2012 draft class square off again as Ryan Tannehill and Andrew Luck go mano a mano for the second time in their career. The  first time Luck had one of the best games of his short career as he threw for over 400 yards leading the Colts to a huge victory. If Luck's pass protection can hold up for him against the Dolphins' Cameron Wake and rookie Dion Jordan, he has a chance of repeating that performance. While on paper that seems unlikely, owner Jim Irsay calling out Luck's protection through the media could motivate this group to step up and perform. The Dolphins' running game has to get going in this game for their offense to out-perform Luck, but their stats from week one were not encouraging.

Cowboys at Chiefs
27-21 Cowboys
Tony Romo's ribs turn out to be fine as he calmly hits his targets from the pocket and avoids any classic Tony Romo blunders. The Cowboys' defense is still giving up yards but they're taking the ball away more and making it harder for teams to slowly drive the length of the field, which is exactly Alex Smith's game. Smith's patient style of quarterbacking isn't built to work against the Cover 2 defense, and the Cowboyos will take advantage of that match-up as they try to stay on top the NFC East.

Chargers at Eagles
31-18 Eagles
Chip Kelly is too fast for another defense and the Eagles roll to a 2-0 start. The Chargers' defense is a lot less scary in the front seven than the Redskins' were, and they're going to be exhausted trying to keep up with the Eagles during this game. Philip Rivers still isn't completely fixed as well, and this offense doesn't seem how to avoid critical mistakes yet, as Mike McCoy will have to go deeper in the schedule to get win one of his head coaching tenure.

Lions at Cardinals
28-24 Lions
The Lions' defensive line was all over the Vikings' offensive line Sunday, which doesn't bode well for the Cardinals, as their line is their biggest weakness. Carson Palmer will try to stay poised throughout the day and will be able to deliver some strikes under pressure, but hits and sacks are going to keep this offense off-rhythm. Matthew Stafford and this offense is going to need to prove they can punch the ball in the end zone when they get into red zone situations, but there's no way some of the bad breaks they suffered week one will come back, minus the penalties.

Saints at Buccaneers
30-10 Saints
The New Orleans Saints are back, while the Buccaneers may be reverting back to their old status at the bottom of the NFL. Josh Freeman doesn't look composed in the pocket, and if the Saints defense can hold down Matt Ryan and his receiving corps, Freeman shouldn't be considered much of a threat. If the Bucs want to win this game they're going to have to ride Doug Martin all day long, but he didn't have a promising showing week one. Drew Brees and this offense are humming again under Sean Payton, and it looks like not even Revis Island will be able to stop them.

Broncos at Giants
35-28 Broncos
Manning Bowl III is perhaps the final bout between football's favorite family, and if so, the reigning champion will end with a sweep. Peyton and his high octane offense should be flying during this game, as the Giants failed to create a pass rush last week against the Cowboys. The Broncos actually have similar pass rush issues, and so Eli and his receivers should also have plenty to work with, which means we could be headed to an old western shootout for the prize of top Manning brother. In the end, this Giants team still has plenty of kinks to work out and needs to prove it can hold onto the ball before they can think of winning a shootout, which means Manning the elder takes round three.

Jaguars at Raiders
17-13 Raiders
The game to possibly decide the number one pick in the 2014 draft goes to...well, depends on which outcome you actually consider "winning." If Chad Henne struggles as much as Blaine Gabbert did against the Chiefs at quarterback, the Jaguars will most likely be riding the Teddy Bridgewater express for the rest of the year and be forced to dream of a (hopefully) brighter tomorrow. For the Raiders, Terrelle Pryor may be actually able to provide entertaining Sundays for Raiders fans, as while his mechanics are almost unbearably funky, his improvisational skills actually gives this team a chance to succeed.

Steelers at Bengals
24-14 Bengals
The Bengals rebound from a tough week one loss by beating their reeling division rivals at home, causing even more panic to ensue in Pittsburgh. The Steelers' messy offensive line, which couldn't hold back the Titans, should likewise struggle against the Bengals strong front, so expect plenty more hits on Big Ben. Andy Dalton and the offense shouldn't expect a big day facing Dick Lebeau's defense, but this defense has struggled to force turnovers, which they should find comforting after giving up the ball multiple times against the Bears.

49ers at Seahawks
33-30 49ers
Round one of the NFC West salvo goes to the San Francisco 49ers, in a game that will have a score higher than you would expect. There is simply going to be too much emotion in this game to properly define on paper, as both defenses match up well against their opposing offense,  but the quest to out-do the other team could lead to big  points. Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson simply won't be able to sit still if their counterpart scores, and if their competition causes them to raise their games there's about nothing any defense should be able to do. I mean, these guys don't want to lose an eyebrow! Wilson's offense around him looks like it needs work though, and he should face much more pressure from San Francisco's front seven than Kaepernick is going to get, which may prove to be the difference in round one of the best divisional match-up of the NFL.


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