Thursday, September 26, 2013

NFL Game Picks: Week 4

Week 3 provided plenty of surprises and upsets, and as a result this blogger's predictions were pretty much ruined (we're not even going to talk about it). As a result, I'm hoping for a bit of a bounce back week in week 4, and I think I've learned enough to give up on some teams and give some teams the credit they deserve. Once again, this week doesn't exactly have a marquee match-up, but there's plenty of games that could go either way! Read on to find out which teams come out on top as most of them wrap up the first quarter of their season!

Byes this week: Green Bay Packers and Carolina Panthers

49ers at Rams
17-10 49ers
The 49ers are reeling right now after two blowout losses, but the Rams had done very little to inspire confidence the last two weeks either. The 49ers' receivers had a lot of trouble getting open against man coverage these past two weeks, but Frank Gore showed signs of life last week against the Colts. The Rams just allowed 175 yards on the ground to DeMarco Murray, and Jim Harbaugh will likely get Frank the tank moving in order to try to settle down Colin Kaepernick.

Ravens at Bills
21-17 Ravens
The Bills will face a tough defense for the third week in a row, and rookie EJ Manuel is likely going to struggle just like he did last week. Ravens' inside linebacker Daryl Smith is playing great football over the middle, so EJ Manuel is going to need to find a way to take the top off this defense if he wants to get Smith out of the picture. The big story for the Ravens will hopefully be getting their running game going with the return of Ray Rice, as Rice has yet to total over 27 rushing yards in a game.

Bears at Lions
31-20 Bears
The Bears continue their hot streak to open their season with their second win inside their division. The Lions are going to get a boost with Reggie Bush coming back, but the loss of Nate Burleson is going to allow the Bears to focus on either Bush or Calvin Johnson. The Lions still have a lot of discipline issues, and the Bears' defense is the best at creating takeaways from other teams' mistakes. The Bears' new offensive line will be tested by the Lions' front four, but the Jay Cutler to Brandon Marshall connection could have a field day against the Lions' weak secondary.

Bengals at Browns
27-14 Bengals
The Browns' resurgence stops after a week as they get handed their third loss by their division foe. The Bengals' front four did a good job of pressuring Aaron Rodgers last week, and if they play up to their standard Brian Hoyer should see plenty of orange in his face. The Bengals' offense isn't that explosive yet, but they're integrating a lot of different weapons into the game, and that could give the Browns' strong defense fits if Dalton has enough time to throw.

Seahawks at Texans
28-21 Seahawks
The Seahawks continue their roll of domination, while the Texans continue to trend in the downward direction. The Seahawks' offense hasn't put up that many points yet (except against the lowly Jaguars), but their defense has completely stymied opponents, and the Texan offense looks out of whack right now. The Seahawks have shut down quarterbacks much better than Matt Schaub this year, and even though they're on the road it's likely they improve to 4-0.

Colts at Jaguars
24-10 Colts
The Jaguars just haven't been competitive in any of their games so far, and starting Blaine Gabbert again isn't going to change that. These two teams have very different men under center, and now it looks like Luck might even have better players in the backfield behind him too. This just cannot be a fun season for Jaguars fans, and hopefully for them this start will at least convince the organization that they're gaining nothing by continuing to start Gabbert.

Giants at Chiefs
24-21 Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs easily look like the most improved team in the NFL this year, as they've already won more games than they did all of last year. The Giants meanwhile, are imploding due to a weak offensive line, and Chiefs' pass rusher Chris Houston will offer them no reprieve. Eli's going to get hit plenty of times again, and the Giants are going to find themselves near the bottom of the NFL, a position the organization almost never finds itself it.

Steelers "at" Vikings (London game)
24-20 Steelers
The people in London will be given quite the show Sunday, as two 0-3 teams will duel to decide who's less awful. Just based on quarterback play, that's likely to be the Steelers. The Vikings' secondary is beat up and injured, and this time they won't be facing Brian Hoyer under center (though even he threw for over 300 yards against this secondary). The Steelers' defense has yet to force a turnover this year, but that's likely to change as the Vikings' offense currently likes to give the ball away (2nd in the league in giveaways).

Cardinals at Buccaneers
17-13 Cardinals
Rookie Mike Glennon will now be starting for Tampa Bay, but the rookie third round pick is going to have his share of struggles as he realizes that he's not in college anymore. Glennon was viewed as a developmental prospect coming into the draft, and Greg Schiano may be kicking the tires on Glennon a little too soon. The Cardinals need to keep Carson Palmer upright against a tough defense, but their defense should be able to help them achieve an ugly win.

Jets at Titans
20-14 Titans
I almost wanted to pick the Jets this week, but Geno Smith has been inconsistent in his first three starts, and I'm done underestimating this Titans team. The Titans pulled off an impressive win last week at home against the Chargers, and their fan base will be fired up for another game at home as this team could get off to a very hot start. I still have plenty of questions about Jake Locker, but if he can keep getting it done like he did on Sunday, these Titans have a shot when they play the Colts or the Texans again.

Eagles at Broncos
35-27 Broncos
Two high octane offenses will do battle this Sunday, but the elder statesman of the NFL will show the young college guy how it's done at the next level. Peyton has been playing ridiculous football so far this year, and the Eagles' secondary will have no chance against him and his arsenal of weapons. The Broncos' defense isn't exactly going to shut down Michael Vick or Lesean McCoy either, but Eagle turnovers are going to put too much pressure on their defense.

Redskins at Raiders
30-28 Redskins
RGIII will be able to quiet a lot of critics for at least one week if he's able to finally guide Washington to its first week of the season. If Terrelle Pryor is forced to sit because of a concussion he incurred during Monday Night Football, the Skins defense should finally be able to breathe easy for a game. Matt Flynn will have little chance behind a shaky offensive line that's been disguised so far by Pryor's mobility. Flynn is nowhere near the athlete Pryor is, and the Raiders don't exactly have enough threats on offense to strike fear in any defense, even one as bad as the Redskins'.

Cowboys at Chargers
31-21 Cowboys
The Cowboys look like they're going to be on top of the NFC East this year simply by process of elimination, but their offense showed a lot of improvement last week by opening up a running game for DeMarco Murray. Philip Rivers has been playing excellent so far this season, but it doesn't seem the coaching staff has fully bought into his comeback as they're still taking the ball out of his hands often, especially at the end of games. Hopefully the coaching staff will learn after this week that that's an unwise thing to do, as Tony Romo is going to get the ball back late and will ice this game away.

Patriots at Falcons
28-24 FALCONS
The Patriots might get Rob Gronkowski back this week, and they'll announce their resurgence to the rest of the NFL with a big win in the Georgia Dome Sunday night. The Falcons' offense, which was supposed to be dominant this year, is having trouble putting the pieces together due to injuries. Julio Jones has still been great, but Bill Belichick will definitely do his best to take Jones out of the game, and it's unlikely the Falcons can beat the Patriots' defense if he disappears. Tom Brady started getting into a slight rhythm last week, and if he keeps that rhythm going the Falcons' defense won't be able to stop him.
UPDATE: Rob Gronkowski and Danny Amendola both did not travel with the team to face the Falcons this week, and without them it's hard to imagine Tom Brady being able to top Matt Ryan in the Georgia Dome. I'm switching my pick to the home team.

Dolphins at Saints
27-23 Saints
The Dolphins have been an outstanding story thus far this season, but the Saints' search for redemption is going to prove to be the better tale, as beating Sean Payton inside the Superdome is going to be a tall order.
The Saints' edge rushers have been much better than expected this season, while Ryan Tannehill's blockers leave a lot to be desired. Expect Rob Ryan to get after the young quarterback early to get him off balance. Ryan Tannehill is very much improved this year, but he has yet to reach the level of Drew Brees, who will be throwing to achieve his ninth consecutive 300 yard game.

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