After an embarrassing loss to Detroit to open the season, the Vikings are already treating their week two match-up against the division rival Bears as a must win game. It's not hard to argue with their logic, teams that lose their first two games of the season have only a 11.6% chance of making the playoffs, and starting 0-2 in their division as well could be a deep hole to dig out of. The Vikings are going to really have to want this win, as their track record on the road against Chicago is not good, they are 2-12 at Soldier Field since 2000. If they want the win, they are going to have to answer several questions about the abilities of this team, and so this week two preview will be framed by the major questions surrounding this football team.
Special Teams:
Can Jeff Locke overcome rookie nerves?
Rookie Punter Jeff Locke's NFL debut did not go as hoped, as he only averaged 34.8 yards per punt against the Lions. With the Vikings struggling on both offense and defense a good special teams play could really have helped this team out by putting them in favorable positions, but instead their problems were compounded by often starting in bad field position on defense. With the Vikings going against a touch Chicago defense there's no doubt the offense will probably be unsuccessful on a few drives, and if so Locke needs to back the Bears up in order to help out this defense.
Defense:
Can the Vikings' linebackers cover Matt Forte and Martellus Bennett?
One of the biggest reasons the Vikings lost to the Lions was their inability to have their linebackers cover running backs Reggie Bush and Joique Bell. The two combined for 283 total yards on the day, 168 of those coming from the passing game. The Vikings' linebackers were simply unable to keep up with backs in space, and allowed huge yards after the catch to not just the running backs, but virtually every type of player on the Detroit offense (the Lions' totaled 240 yards after the catch, Matthew Stafford's average throw only traveled five yards). The Bears' running back Matt Forte poses a similar threat as Bush both on the ground and through the air, and there is no doubt that Bears' coach Marc Trestman watched the Vikings' game film and is salivating at the possibilities of using Forte in space. Linebackers may also be asked to cover tight end Martellus Bennett Sunday, who will be a key third down and red zone target for the Bears. The linebackers are going to be targeted often in this game, and if they can't slow down Forte and Bennett the Bears will have an easy time moving the ball on offense.
Will Kevin Williams' possible return energize the defensive line?
Without a doubt, Kevin Williams' presence was sorely missed in the middle of the Vikings' defensive line against the Lions. The Lions were able to run the ball right at the Vikings, totaling 117 rushing yards, a game plan that teams usually avoid when Williams is on the field. The Vikings also only had one sack in week one without one of their veteran leaders, and even that sack only came on a busted play when Matthew Stafford basically gave himself up for Jared Allen. Hopefully Williams will be able to rally this unit into being a factor in this game, as any repeat of last week will lead straight to another loss. This line needs to step up because they are facing a much tougher opponent this week, as Matt Forte is known as a much better between the tackles runner than Reggie Bush, and the Bears' offensive line allowed no sacks last week against a very good Cincinnati Bengals front.
Will the Vikings' stay stout in the red zone?
One of the keys that at least kept the Vikings in the game in Detroit through the first half was their ability to stand tough in the red zone. Detroit only scored touchdowns on three of their six trips inside the Vikings' 20, and came away with no points on one of those trips. The number of trips inside the red zone is not a great statistic, but if this defense is able to keep up their red zone efficiency they are going to stay in games a lot longer than they should. The Bears have plenty of big targets when they get close to the end zone, so forcing the Bears to settle for three rather than seven points would be a huge victory for this defense.
Offense:
Can this offensive line block and help sustain drives?
The Vikings' offensive line, to put it nicely, had an off day against Detroit. They allowed three sacks and plenty of pressure on Christian Ponder, and after a great opening play, Adrian Peterson was held to 15 yards on his next 17 carries. The offensive line gave AP no room to run, and this offense simply isn't built to be successful if the NFL's MVP can't get loose. That was proven with the inefficiency the offense showed when Peterson was shut down, only averaging 4.15 plays for drive, and that statistic drops to 3.68 plays when not counting a last minute desperation drive where the Lions were letting the Vikings move the ball in order to kill time (so barely more than a three and out). Out of the offense's 13 drives, eight resulted in a three and out or a turnover. A huge amount of that blame falls upon the line for creating virtually no running game and making an already shaky quarterback more nervous in the pocket. The Vikings' are facing another solid defensive line in the Bears, and a repeat performance will doom any chance this team has at winning.
Can turnovers be avoided against the Bears' defense?
The Vikings turned the ball over four different times in their first game, one of the main reasons they walked away from Ford Field with a loss. That stat line needs to change for the Vikings to win on Sunday, but they are facing an opportunistic Bears' defense that excels at getting the ball back to their offense. Last year at Soldier Field the defense forced three turnovers from the Vikings which helped lead to an easy 28-10 Bears' victory. Nothing appears to have changed in the early going this year as this defense just forced three turnovers from the Cincinnati Bengals in their opener. Ponder will need to make good decisions because cornerbacks Tim Jennings and Charles Tillman do not hesitate to break on the ball and go for interceptions. Ponder also needs to have excellent ball placement as any tipped balls tend to wind up in the hands of Bears, and these corners are elite when it comes to forcing fumbles from receivers. The Vikings' defense already have their hands full just trying to match-up with this Bears' offense, and if the offense puts them in bad spots with turnovers it's going to be another rough day at Soldier Field.
How close are we to Matt Cassel?
Christian Ponder only added to his critics with his three interception performance against the Lions, and another bad outing facing the Bears is going to make coach Leslie Fraizer's patience wear thin. Fraizer is basically coaching on the last year of his contract this season (his option was picked up for 2014, but coaches don't work on one year contracts in the NFL), and he might be forced to switch to Matt Cassel at quarterback just to try to save his skin. Ponder needs to make better decisions than he did last week and lead a much more successful offense. He needs to convert on third downs (the Vikings were only 2/10 in that category against the Lions) and show he can stretch the field for Adrian Peterson while avoiding ugly turnovers. Offensive coordinator needs to have a better game plan this week as well to help make Ponder successful, as many of the decisions made in the opener were highly questionable. Ponder shouldn't roll out to his left as he isn't able to set his feet in those situations, and more plays need to target his favorite target, tight end Kyle Rudolph, who only had two catches week one. Ponder needs to execute not matter what the play-call, though, as his leash has just about run out in Minnesota. Keep your helmet close on the sideline Matt.
Final Prediction: 24-18 Bears
The Vikings just don't seem like they're going to be able to get over the hump at Soldier Field on Sunday, and an 0-2 start seems highly likely. The Bears' cornerbacks must be ready to feast watching Ponder's spotty decision making and ball placement on tape, and while the Vikings' receivers have talent they are nothing Jennings and Tillman can't handle. On the other side the ball the Vikings might not be able to trust their linebackers in coverage against Matt Forte, and if they are forced to have a safety cover him, Jay Cutler will be easily able to go over the top of this defense with All-Pro wide receiver Brandon Marshall. It is just highly unlikely that the answers to all these questions will end up favorable to the Vikings, which is why I'm predicting a second straight divisional loss to start the 2013 season.
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