Thursday, September 5, 2013

NFL Game Picks: Week 1

Just like Power Rankings will be coming in every week, every Thursday before Thursday night kickoff I will share my humble predictions for the NFL for the upcoming week, including score predictions! I'll be checking the results on all my picks and share with you my prediction record for the season, just so you know how well I'm doing. We're officially almost two hours from kickoff time folks, it's time to get excited!

Ravens at Broncos
35-24 Broncos
Revenge tastes sweet for the Denver Broncos as their new high-octane offense outguns Joe Flacco's cannon arm in the opening game of the 2013 season. Flacco will have all day to throw with the Broncos missing Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil now on the Ravens' sideline, but Peyton will be unstoppable, as the Ravens' defenders gasp for air in the extreme altitude of Mile High Stadium.

Patriots at Bills
24-14 Patriots
Rookie EJ Manuel has a decent showing in his first NFL game, but Tom Brady will show him what a real NFL quarterback is like. Brady will gel enough with his new receivers to keep defenders out of the box, which allows the Patriots run game to go off to the races. Bill Belichick will also pull out a ton of weird looks on defense to confuse EJ Manuel, and EJ will be in his own head too much to have time to move the chains.

Seahawks at Panthers
24-20 Seahawks
This game will be closer than you think it will, with the Panthers' scary front seven holding down the Seahawk run game for the most part, until late in the game the 'Hawks finally break one loose to take control of the game. Cam Newton will have a hard time moving against this Seattle defense, though his own mobility has the potential to open some things up on this defense.

Bengals at Bears
24-17 Bengals
The Bengals announce their arrival to the NFL conversation when Andy Dalton has a solid (but not spectacular) day against one of the NFL's better defenses. The biggest mismatch in this game comes between the Bengals' defensive line and the Bears' offensive line, and even though rookie Kyle Long looks like a great pickup at this point, it's unlikely the Bear's unit has a good outing, and that directly leads into a bad day for Jay Cutler.

Dophins at Browns
21-17 Browns
The Browns are a somewhat upset pick here, as they take care of the big offseason spenders this year at home. The Browns have a new pass rush on the edges in Paul Kruger and Barkevious Mingo, and they could make life difficult for new starting left tackle Jonathan Martin. Trent Richardson will wear down this Dolphins' front which will allow Brandon Weeden to go play-action over the top of their defense for a big score.

Vikings at Lions
27-21 Vikings
The Vikings start their season off on a positive note as they walk out of Ford Field 1-0 in their division. The Vikings' defensive line needs to have a big day, as they should have the talent to be able to shut down the Lions' running game and put plenty of pressure on Matthew Stafford. They're going to need to in order to give some help to their young corners, while on the other side of the ball the Vikings' offensive line will need to control the Detroit front in order to spring Adrian Peterson. They also need to avoid the stupid mistakes that cost the Lions so much in 2012. Detroit has talent, but it's hard to trust them.

Raiders at Colts
40-10 Colts
Andrew Luck dispels any notion of a sophomore slump happening as he gets pulled halfway through the final quarter with the Colts' win secured. Luck lights up this sub-par Oakland defense, while his counterpart Terrell Pryor uses his legs to escape Colts defenders, but isn't able to complete passes from the pocket to lead any sort of a comeback. This game could get boring early because these two teams are trending in very opposite directions.

Chiefs at Jaguars
21-13 Chiefs
The Chiefs will be halfway to their 2012 record after just one game as they beat their NFL cellar-mates from last year on the road. Alex Smith will prove that he is still Alex Smith by throwing for under 200 yards, and Blaine Gabbert will surprise no one by having a very sub-par outing. Jamaal Charles will be the difference here as he slices through the Jacksonville front and into their secondary, and the Jaguars begin their quest for the top spot in the 2014 draft.


Falcons at Saints
38-35 Saints
A shootout in the Superdome goes down Sunday as Sean Payton's return leads the Saints to an opening day victory over their division rivals. Payton has a very good record when facing the Falcons, and with the Dirty Bird's back end looking weak this year, expect him and quarterback Drew Brees to take shots early and often. Matt Ryan will have no trouble getting his share of points on the Saints's suspect defense but playing in the Superdome is never easy as Ryan falls in New Orleans for the second year in a row.

Buccaneers at Jets
21-0 Buccaneers
Needless to say, Geno Smith does not get his NFL career off to a good start. The rookie will wish he watched game film on Darelle Revis after Sunday after he gets intercepted multiple times by the Tampa Bay defense. Josh Freeman does nothing to silence his critics and Rex Ryan shows he can still coach a heck of a defense, but the failures of the Jets' offense will give them no chance to win this game.

Titans at Steelers
20-14 Steelers
The Titans may have a new interior of their offensive line ready to help run the ball, but the Steelers may still be the best in the business when it comes to shutting the run down. Jake Locker won't be able to stay accurate if more pressure starts to fall on him, while Ben Roesthlisberger will pull off his usual Houdini act behind the line of scrimmage several times, escaping Titan defenders who beat his weak offensive line to find his receivers downfield.

Packers at 49ers
34-28 49ers
The Packers' defense has studied all offseason for this matchup, as they have articulated they are confident they will be able to stop the vaunted read-option and slow down Colin Kaepernick. Their confidence may be their downfall however, as there doesn't appear to be any real easy fix for shutting the formation down. Linebacker Clay Matthews says they will simply put hits on Kaepernick, but if you attempt to get him behind the line of scrimmage that means someone is probably open downfield. Packers' rookie left tackle David Bakhtiari will also receive a rough introduction to the NFL, courtesy of Justin and Aldon Smith.

Cardinals at Rams
21-10 Rams
With the loss of Jonathan Cooper and no reliable option at running back stepping forward, the Cardinal offense doesn't exactly match up well with the solid Rams' defense. The unit that forced the most sacks last year faces the unit that gave up the most, and that mismatch should prevent Carson Palmer and the offense from getting in sync all day. Sam Bradford and his new weapons don't light up the world on the other side of the ball, but they put up a solid day against a respectable defense and should continue to improve as the season goes on.

Giants at Cowboys
28-24 Giants
The Giants are undefeated when playing at Jerry World and that stat doesn't change when Eli gets a clean pocket most of the game and is able to pick apart Monte Kiffin's Cover 2 scheme. Cowboys pass rusher DeMarcus Ware will now line up with the Giants' left tackle instead of on the right in the 'Boys' new 4-3 scheme, and he gets slowed down enough by the position switch to keep Eli Manning upright. Meanwhile, Dez Bryant puts up monster numbers and carries the Cowboy offense, but in the end he comes up just short (a fingertip short maybe?) when the Cowboys' run game stalls, forcing Tony Romo to throw too much. When Romo has a lot of attempts during a day, picks are almost sure to follow.

Eagles at Redskins
28-27 Redskins
I said the Eagles would lose some close shootouts, right? Michael Vick is reborn yet again as his arm and mobility keeps the Redskins' defenders guessing as Chip Kelly directs several fast scoring drives. However, Washington likes to place a fast, run-based offense too, and the return of RGIII helps the 'Skins and Alfred Morris run all over this Eagles' defense, and Michael Vick isn't able to get the ball back late to lead a comeback drive attempt.

Texans at Chargers
28-20 Texans
The Chargers make this a closer game than you would believe, but JJ Watt still will be in Philip Rivers' nightmares after Sunday. Ryan Matthews looks healthy enough to actually contribute this year, and his presence provides enough offensive balance for Rivers to have a decent outing (though he will turn the ball over at least once). This Chargers' defense is actually not bad, and they will be able to slow down running back Arian Foster, which in turn slows down basically the Texans' entire offense. Matt Schaub will use his weapons though, especially new addition Deandre Hopkins, to convert on key third downs though, and the Texans will begin their march toward proving their worth as contenders.

There's all the picks, now bring on the football!

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