Tuesday, September 24, 2013

Where do we go from here?

The Vikings are currently at 0-3 on the season, and many Vikings fans, sensing this year is going to turn out more like 2011 and 2012, have already given up hope on 2013. The offensive line is a mess, all three levels of the defense are struggling, and the man behind center is sadly who we thought he was. A reach in the first round who will not wind up being a long term starter at the NFL level. The coaching staff has been thoroughly outdone by its opponents throughout the first three games, and there is no doubt the Vikings are strategically behind the eight ball. There is little on this team that is working, and the odds now appear likely that we're going to see major shake-ups in this organization during the offseason. So, where do we go from here?

Well, for starters, any fans who now hope the Vikings throw in the towel and "tank for Teddy" (the Teddy being Louisville's hot quarterback prospect, who most likely will be the first pick in 2014) will be disappointed. The Vikings are not going to simply throw in the towel for this season, that is not what teams in professional sports do. It would be shameful for the Wilfs to inform the roster to simply give up on the season while profiting handsomely from the revenues created on game day. There is no guarantee the Vikings will even be able to grab the top spot in the draft anyway, as a pretty strong argument can be made that the Jaguars aren't winning a game this year. With the way this roster is performing through three games (and remember, many considered this to be the EASY part of their schedule), the Vikings are going to end up with a high pick whether they give up or not, and they most likely will have their pick of quarterbacks not named Bridgewater (if fans are curious, start watching Tajh Boyd of Clemson, Marcus Mariota of Oregon and Brett Hundley of UCLA). Not only would giving up serve no purpose for this team draft wise, it would alienate most fans and be an altogether shameful form of business practice.

There is, however, a difference between tanking a season and moving pieces on your roster to build towards the future. Despite public opinion, this is what the Browns were doing. Trent Richardson was not a part of their long term plans so they moved him while his value was high (through two games he wasn't exactly on a record setting pace, getting a first round pick for him in the offseason would have been difficult). The Browns are set up for the future, but as evidenced Sunday this coaching staff has not given up on the present even a little bit. For the Vikings to move forward as an organization, they are going to have to find a way to get value for pieces they will not need in the future while making sure to find time to develop their young players.

Unfortunately for the Vikings, there is little talent that they could unload and hope to receive something of value in return. Of everyone on the team, Toby Gerhart is the one most likely to be moved, as he is likely to walk away in free agency anyway during the offseason and with Adrian Peterson the Vikings don't need a great backup running back because he will rarely see the field. No doubt Speilman is already trying his best to shop Toby, but one team that had interest, the Colts, now it out of the picture because they received a far better offer from the Browns in Richardson. Other than that, few contenders seem to be searching for running back depth so Toby's market is likely pretty thin. Unless competition on the market heats up, the Vikings may only be looking at a fourth or fifth round pick as compensation for Toby, as really he has not shown enough in his career to be considered more than a backup rotational running back.

Who else could the Vikings look to trade? Your guess is as good as mine. Right now, with the state of the team, there are probably few assets teams want that the Vikings are willing to part with. The nucleus of the team is young and has potential, and that potential is worth holding onto if it can only be replaced by nameless draft picks as of now. One might think Jared Allen could be shipped off to a contending team, as he will likely depart in free agency this year anyway, but Allen has not played like himself these first few weeks and his cap hit (about $17 million) this year is huge compared to his lack of on field production. It's very unlikely that a contending team is willing to take that hit and offer anything substantial in return for Allen. The potential wild card here is Christian Ponder. Probably not during the season, but in the offseason when this team almost certainly moves in a different direction, Ponder might be traded. The compensation won't be great, but the Vikings would do well to completely cut ties with him and at least receive something back for their investment. Ponder is still young and athletic, so there is probably at least one team out there that thinks it will be able to make a suitable backup out of him. Bill Musgrave and this offense have done him no favors, which means another coach possibly thinks he can achieve some success outside of that system (and I can't completely disagree).

Since we brought him up, let's discuss number seven. Even this season, Ponder has given fans a few things to cheer about, but his inconsistency has held this team back and put it in the loss column. Ponder needs everything to be perfect around him to succeed. Last year, when the offensive line was playing great and Adrian Peterson was plowing through holes, Ponder could get it done. Now, with the line not playing up to their standards and Adrian trying to do too much against stacked boxes, Ponder was floundered. He's been inaccurate, turned the ball over, and failed to support his defense when they've given the ball to him on a turnover or needed him to stay on the field. More often than not, this offense looks lost and out of sync, and their confidence seems to be shattered. And that's the main reason Ponder needs to ride the bench starting in London. He is shattering the confidence of his teammates, and the Vikings need most of their offensive players for the foreseeable future.

Matt Cassel isn't going to be the answer. But right now this offense has no confidence in itself and it needs a spark somewhere, and there's nowhere else to turn. There  is no depth on the offensive line that is ready to replace any of the starters, and some of their problems may simply be a matter of healthy (Center John Sullivan looks like he still isn't 100% after offseason knee surgery, and something was wrong with right tackle Phil Loadholt Sunday). The wide receivers haven't underachieved at all, they just need someone who can give them the ball. Not to mention, the future of your wide receiver coirps, Cordarrelle Patterson, spent most of his offseason working with Matt Cassel at quarterback. If the Vikings think it would help Patterson's development in any way to have Cassel out at quarterback, then that is a move they have to make.

Defensively, Antoine Winfield isn't coming to help. He's made plenty of money in his career, so he's not going to accept a low offer from a team out of contention. There are no backups sitting on the bench (period, in the case of the secondary) waiting to take a starter's job, so there is little chance of improving this defense throughout the season. Desmond Bishop could start to see more snaps, but it's clear the Vikings just see him as a weakside linebacker in the base defense, meaning that even if he starts he's going to be pulled off the field in nickel situations. What the defense needs to do is continue to force turnovers, and just hope the offense will start to get some points off of those.

There are no easy fixes when it comes to this roster, and it doesn't look like the Vikings are going to be able to right the ship this season, at least not with this coaching staff. The Vikings are simply going to have to soldier on through the rest of the season, playing hard so Patterson, Wright, Smith, Rhodes and Floyd turn into the players the organization needs them to be. Those players are the ones to watch for the rest of the season. For the rest of the veterans, a fresh perspective this offseason, or maybe even a change of scenery, most likely will need to happen for them to achieve success again.

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