Now that my positional rankings have been finished and my latest big board is live, it's time to predict what's going to happen come May 8. Ladies and gentlemen, my first mock draft of 2014.
Mock Drafts can be a fun exercise with the slow NFL news cycle in the offseason, but of course they're completely non-predictive of what's actually going to happen when the Texans turn in their first card. It's impossible to predict trades or potential runs on positions at this point in time, so it's very unlikely that even a handful of these picks come to fruition.
That doesn't mean mock drafts are a worthless exercise either though. They're a great way to start matching need and value in the draft, and most mock drafts can at least predict the majority of the players that will go in the first round. Thus, don't get terribly angry if your team doesn't get a play you like, instead look around to see what players might be available around your team's pick and what needs they might fill!
Well, now that I've spent two paragraphs just explaining what a mock draft is, here's how I think the selection process might play out if the draft were held today!
1. HOU: Blake Bortles, UCF - QB
After an impressive performance at the Combine, it looks like Blake Bortles has put himself in a great position to be the first player off the board. Bortles seems to fit the model Bill O'Brien wants for his quarterbacks, not to mention O'Brien saw Bortles' talent first hand hen UCF played Penn State this year. The Texans may decided a J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney pairing is too good to pass up, but Hall of Fame writer John McClain has said the Texans are just looking at quarterbacks, and he's somebody who would know.
2. STL: Greg Robinson, Auburn - OT
It's been the same theme for a few years now: The Rams need to surround Sam Bradford with better talent. Robinson is a potential monster tackle that could open up holes for running back Zac Stacy for years to come. It's highly likely the Rams try to trade this pick, but with Robinson, Clowney and Watkins all sitting in their laps at this point, it may be hard to pass those players up.
3. JAX: Jadeveon Clowney, South Carolina - DE
The Jaguars' pass rush lacked punch last season, but through the draft they could pick up the man who could go down as one of the best rushers in NFL history. There's no doubt Gus Bradley would be salivating all over the war room if Clowney made it to No. 3, and I would expect the Jaguars to run to the podium in this situation. The Jaguars could also look to take another quarterback, but recent comments by general manager David Caldwell suggest he's in no rush to find a new passer.
4. CLE: Sammy Watkins, Clemson - WR
Johnny Manziel and the Browns seemed to be destined to be together earlier in the process, but with Ray Farmer taking over the front office the Brown's plans become a lot less clear. They desperately need a quarterback, but it may be hard not to find a quarterback that can succeed if he's throwing to Josh Gordon and Sammy Watkins. It's highly possible Cleveland takes Watkins here, and grabs a passer with their second first round pick.
5. OAK: Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M - QB
The late Al Davis loved special athletes, and I would imagine his son, Mark Davis, would bang the table if the Johnny Football made it to No. 5. No matter how you may potentially feel about Manziel as a prospect, there's no denying that he is at least going to be box office at the next level. Manziel could be sold as a new beginning for the silver and black, and the franchise is finally out of salary-cap torture and is ready to begin anew. The team has holes all over, but bringing in Manziel is going to put seats in the stands.
6. ATL: Jake Matthews, Texas A&M - OT
The Falcons need a lot of help in the trenches, and adding a franchise tackle like Matthews would keep Matt Ryan happy and upright for a long time. Matthews should be a plug-and-play starter on the Falcon's offensive line immediately, whether it be on the right or the left side to start. The Falcons may want to target a pass rusher with this pick like Kalil Mack, but Matthews is a rare blue-chip prospect this team shouldn't pass up.
7. TB: Khalil Mack, Buffalo - LB
Lovie Smith inherits a talented defense down in Tampa Bay, but he is still missing some explosiveness on the edge that could turn the Bucs into truly an elite defensive unit. Luckily, his team has one of the best pass rushers in the draft fall right into their lap. Mack was known for wreaking havoc in the backfield during his college career, and Smith's elite defensive mind would put him in great positions to succeed throughout his career.
8. MN: Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville - QB
Vikings fans rejoice, here comes Teddy! While originally it was almost considered out of the realm of possibility that Bridgewater would fall to Minnesota, interest in this quarterback class seems to have dwindled and Bridgewater received plenty of heat for not working out at the combine. Regardless of how he worked out, Bridgewater is the most pro-ready quarterback in this class and would immediately be the best quarterback on the roster. Vikings fans should only hope Teddy's stock stays this low through May.
9. BUF: C.J. Mosley, Alabama - LB
The Bills found one stud inside linebacker in last year's draft in Kiko Alonso, and now they can get him a stud partner in the form of C.J. Mosley. The Bills may actually have the best cover linebacker due in the NFL if this scenario was to play out, which should keep this defense strong even after losing coordinator Mike Pettine.
10. DET: Mike Evans, Texas A&M - WR
While Detroit has been pursuing secondary help for some time, it's time to get Calvin Johnson a partner on the field. Between Johnson and Evans, the Lions would have two receivers with outstanding catch radii, making it virtually impossible for Matthew Stafford to make an inaccurate throw again. With two huge, box-out receivers, teams are going to have a hard time figuring out how to stop the Lions passing attack.
11. TEN: Anthony Barr, UCLA - LB
The Titans are in need of a few more impact defenders if they want to take the leap in the AFC South, and Barr definitely has the potential to be that player. Defensive coordinator Ray Horton typically frees up his edge rushers through his scheme, and that may be the best way to maximize Barr's abilities early while he is still fine-tuning his game. Andrew Luck better watch his back if this pick ends up happening.
12. NYG: Taylor Lewan, Michigan - OT
The Giants sprint up to the podium at this point, since they land one of the top three tackle prospects in the entire draft. Lewan is a pro-ready prospect who would be a godsend in New York right now, given all of their offensive line issues last year. Eli Manning could take a big sigh of relief on draft night, as Lewan could theoretically have his back for the rest of his career.
13. STL: Hasean Clinton-Dix, Alabama - S
The Rams have quietly been building a defense stacked with talent, and really one of the only things missing is a solid last line of defense. Clinton-Dix should give the Rams a versatile playmaker in the back of their defense right away, as he has the range to excel in coverage but the instincts to play in the box as well.
14. CHI: Aaron Donald, Pittsburgh - DT
The Bears defensive line was a sieve throughout much of the season thanks to injuries, but Donald would help them shore up their front in a hurry. Donald has been positively dominant throughout the offseason so far, coming away as a big winner from the Senior Bowl and the Combine. His exceptional quickness should help him slip past interior lineman pretty often, and terrorize quarterbacks and running backs in the backfield.
15. PIT: Calvin Pryor, Louisville - S
With three of its starting four in the secondary on the wrong side of 30, Pittsburgh needs to start getting some help on the back end quickly. Pryor could be a fit at either safety position, and his ability to deliver impact blows would give the Steelers secondary a big punch that it's been lacking for years.
16. DAL: Kony Ealy, Missouri - DE
After seemingly having a revolving door of players on their defensive line last year, the Cowboys need to add some reliable talent to their front four. With Demarcus Ware as a potential cap casualty and Anthony Spencer likely leaving in free agency, Ealy could step in and help shore up the Cowboys line, which should give old Jerry something to smile about.
17. BAL: Zach Martin, Notre Dame - OT/OG
The Ravens theme of the offseason should be getting more pieces around Joe Flacco, and they could start by getting a versatile offensive lineman in the draft. The Ravens struggled to run the football last year because they couldn't consistently get a good push up front, but Martin would be a big upgrade either at right tackle or potentially at center.
18. NYJ: Eric Ebron, North Carolina - TE
The Jets offensive talent was absolutely bone-dry last year, and the team needs to give Geno Smith some targets before they can decide whether he's the quarterback of the future or not. Ebron is a big, fast receiving tight end, and would be the Jets best offensive threat if he were to land there.
19. MIA: Morgan Moses, Virgina - OT
While I had Moses graded as more of a 2nd round talent in my positional rankings, the Dolphins may make a reach at their pick simply because they need offensive line help in the worst way possible. They have their starting center under contract, but that's about it. While the Dolphins are likely to sign somebody in free agency, they're probably going to need to add plenty of bodies through the draft as well.
20. ARI: Justin Gilbert, Oklahoma State - CB
With several talented players falling down the pike to them, the Cardinals could go in multiple directions with this pick to try to get their team in the playoffs for the first time since 2009. While Arizona added the Honey Badger in the draft last year, his main role is as the team's nickel corner rather than playing on the outside. With Gilbert, Patrick Peterson and Mathieu defending opposing receivers, the Cardinals could contend for one of the NFL's best defenses last year.
21. GB: Rashede Hageman, Minnesota - DT
The Packers announced earlier this offseason that they wanted to get faster and more athletic at the front of their defense. That sounds an awful lot like a Hageman scouting report to me. Hageman flashes inconsistent play, but his physical gifts are outstanding for a man at his position and size. Coordinator Dom Capers would also love the versatility Hageman would bring to his front, as he can line up at virtually any position.
22. PHI: Daqueze Dennard, Michigan State - CB
While the Eagles made a triumphant return to the playoffs in Chip Kelly's first season, the team's defense still has a long ways to go before this team achieves a repeat of its heyday in the early 2000s. Dennard's skills in man coverage would be very welcome in the city of brotherly love, and help the Eagles defend against all the franchise passers in the NFC East.
23. KC: Odell Beckham Jr., LSU - WR
The Chiefs offense really opened up towards the end of the season last year, but the team is still lacking a genuine threat at the receiver position opposite of Dwayne Bowe. Beckham Jr. would be a fantastic intermediate presence in Andy Reid's offense, and his hands are probably better than any found on Kansas City's roster right now.
24. CIN: Jason Verrett, TCU - CB
The Bengals have an elite front seven in place on their defense, but they could make their defense even scarier by adding depth at the cornerback position. Leon Hall, Adam Jones and Terrence Newman aren't getting any younger, and Verrett's quickness would be a great complement inside for this secondary.
25. SD: Louis Nix III, Notre Dame - DT
The San Diego Chargers have a major need at cornerback, but unfortunately for them there's been a run on the position just prior to their pick. The team does also need a nose tackle for their 3-4 defense though, and there's no one better in this draft at that position than Louis Nix. Nix should be a mammoth against the run for the Chargers, which could set up their ball control offense nicely.
26. CLE: Derek Carr, Fresno State - QB
Derek Carr has plenty of questions about his ability to play at the NFL level, but if Cleveland does indeed grab Sammy Watkins he could soon be dropping some dimes in the dog pound. Carr has the best arm talent in this draft, and effortlessly push the ball down the field to Watkins and Gordon. If Carr can learn to handle pressure better, than the AFC North better start investing in their secondaries.
27. NO: Ryan Shazier, Ohio State - LB
Rob Ryan did an outstanding job in his first year as the Saints defensive coordinator last year, even though some of the talent in place wasn't a perfect match for his scheme. Shazier, on the other hand, could step right into Ryan's attacking 3-4 defense and provide another pass rushing threat opposite of Junior Galette.
28. CAR: Marqise Lee, USC - WR
Cam Newton took a big leap forward in 2013, but if the Panthers want him to continue ascending they're going to need to surround him with better weapons. Lee is no longer the hot prospect he once was, but he's an excellent route-runner and could turn into one of Carolina's most consistent threats. That is, if he puts his concentration issues to rest.
29. NE: Jace Amaro, Texas Tech - TE
A big questions the Patriots will have to answer this season is: can we count on Rob Gronkowski anymore? The difference in the Patriots offensive numbers with him on the field is eye-popping, but the problem is Gronk hasn't been ready when the Patriots have needed him the most the past three seasons. Amaro has tremendous upside as a receiving tight end, and while he probably won't be the next Gronk, the Patriots just need to give Tom Brady a tight end who can stay on the field to catch passes.
30. SF: Timmy Jernigan, FSU - DT
The 49ers have been fortunate to have Justin Smith dominate as part of their front seven for so long, but sooner or later they are going to have to start bringing in younger talent to take over. Jernigan is an immensely talented inside rusher that would help chase down quarterbacks or free up Aldon Smith on the outside.
31. DEN: Dee Ford, Auburn - DE
When Von Miller was suspended or injured during the 2013 campaign, the effect of his absence was pretty noticeable. The Broncos got great production out of some older veterans on their defensive line, but it's time to bring in some new blood to freshen up their front seven. Ford has energy in spades, and his athleticism could add another dimension to the Denver defense.
32. SEA: David Yankey, Stanford - OG
The Super Bowl Champions did plenty of great things last year, but if they want to repeat they should start by shoring up their offensive line. While Russel Wilson has an amazing ability to escape pressure, too often he was staring at it straight in the face due to missed blocking assignments. Marshawn Lynch also made the best out of what he was given last year, but he wouldn't mind if his rushing lanes were a little wider.
And there you have it, 30 of the 32 NFL teams have officially added fresh faces for the 2014 season! Stay tuned at Showing Some Horns, where we'll start to switch gears a little bit from draft coverage into positional breakdowns for the Vikings roster before free agency starts!
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